As we slip into the 60-day mark until the Republican Primary for Tennessee Governor, many expected an imminent endorsement of Senator Marsha (…Marsha, Marsha) Blackburn by President Donald Trump. After all, in almost every public poll to date, Blackburn is leading Congressman John Rose by a significant margin, which would seem to give Trump another easy win in his nearly 100% endorsement success tally. So why did Trump opt out of an endorsement in the race?
Some have noted that with extremely tight margins in the House and Senate, Trump needs both Rose and Blackburn to remain loyal to the Trump legislative agenda during the coming months. No need to needlessly create an enemy at this point.
And either Rose or Blackburn will easily prevail in November, so either one will be an ally for Trump with or without a primary endorsement. And frankly, Trump has a bigger interest in playing in Senate and House primary races around the country in order to ensure that the best candidate prevails, thereby giving the best chance of keeping or gaining a seat in these bodies in November. Those races are much more significant to his success or failure after the midterms. (Which is also why we are unlikely to see him dive into the sixth district Republican primary race between Johnny Garrett and Van Hilleary: either one will be a staunch Trump supporter when they win in November.)
Others claim the Blackburn’s political consultant, Ward Baker, may have been a factor in Trump’s decision. Baker has been a key supporter and beneficiary of patronage from Trump nemesis Sen. Mitch McConnell, among others. There are several in the Trump White House inner circle who have reportedly been at odds with Baker as well. Was that an issue?
There is no question that Baker has worked aggressively over the past year to secure the Trump endorsement for Blackburn. He was able to secure an endorsement for short-term Tennessee House candidate Morgan Ortegus when she didn’t even have any Tennessee ties, so it was assumed that Blackburn would be an easy lift. But like Diane Black eight years ago, who expected a Trump endorsement but was left wanting, Blackburn came up short.
Presumably, Baker has shown Team Trump numerous polls indicating that Marsha’s extraordinarily high name, recognition and current margin in polling data assures her victory in August. Has the Rose team countered with more recent polling indicating that the gap may be narrowing as he has launched a few tv ads and that Blackburn‘s vulnerabilities can still be exploited over the next two months? Trump does love polls, but he also relies heavily on loyalty and instinct in making his decisions. Those factors probably weighed more heavily than campaign generated polls.
Was Blackburn’s flip-flop against Trump after the January 6 Capitol Hill riot, when she voted in favor of the election confirmation process and secured the election of President Joe Biden, a part of Trump’s decision? Probably not, Senator Bill Hagerty did exactly the same thing, and he has received the endorsement of President Trump in his reelection bid this year.
Or did Blackburn assuming the Senate President ProTem position in February in order to gavel in the Senate with a pro forma session with nobody present, thereby preventing President Trump from making recess appointments, stick in Trump’s memory? Again, probably not since Trump’s objection to the Senate staying in session through this process has been a more recent example of the increasingly contentious relationship with Senate leadership. Nevertheless some Senators have reportedly avoided wielding the gravel to continue the pro forma sessions in order to avoid antagonizing Trump.
Ultimately, the easiest answer may be the fact that Trump has worked closely with both Rose and Blackburn and doesn’t have a compelling reason to choose between them. Having good relations with the next Governor of Tennessee is a benefit to Trump, but not critical. He has not had particularly cozy relations with current Governor Bill Lee, so with or without an endorsement his relationship with either Rose or Blackburn will be a welcome improvement.
Does the non-endorsement help or hurt either Rose or Blackburn? Not really. Both (like virtually every other Republican primary candidate across the state) are already claiming to be joined at the hip with Trump politically, philosophically, ideologically, spiritually, physically, photographically, and any other -ly they can come up with. Either one would’ve been helped by the Trump endorsement. Neither is particularly harmed by not getting his nod.
But politics is largely about expectations. The widely embraced expectation, fueled in part by the Blackburn team pushing it out there, was that Marsha would get endorsed by President Trump. So, Rose can, and should, and probably will, claim a victory of sorts by Trump determining that he is fine with either one of them. Which he clearly is.
Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.
