A Few New Polls Offer Little Clarity About the State of the Governor’s Race

Heading into the final stretch of the midterm elections there is a lot of speculation but very little information about where candidates stand in the Tennessee Governor’s race. Marsha Blackburn continues to embrace her status as presumptive frontrunner, though her continued use of brutal attack ads and absence from open-ended public forums or debates does indicate that things are closer than she claims.

SPRY STRATEGIES POLL. Team Blackburn has pushed out a new poll to buttress their assertion that “all is well.” The poll,from Spry Strategies, surveyed 635 likely voters (remarkably small sample for a legitimate poll), and reported that Marsha Blackburn lead with 43.5, followed by Democrat Jerri Green (32%), Independent David Hatley (11.9%), Ind. Lauren Pinkston (1.4%) and 10.2% undecided. 

The Spry poll reflects a dramatic drop for Blackburn from a Beacon Center poll in early September that showed Blackburn leading Green by a 55-34 margin among likely voters. That survey was conducted before Hatley engaged in any significant campaigning or spending.

Despite being promoted by the Blackburn team, there are several red flags revealed in the polling data that should concern her greatly. First, in addition to being a very small sample, it was tilted strongly toward a Republican base of voters. 53.3% of those surveyed were Republicans compared to just 23.3% Democrats, a thirty-point gap. 19.1% claimed to be independent. By most accounts, in Tennessee and Nationally, Democrats appear more enthusiastic about voting in the midterms than Republicans. A higher-than-usual Democrat turnout in Tennessee could be trouble for Blackburn, something both Green and Hatley could capitalize upon. 

Before Green and Hatley began what is expected to be a continuing barrage of attack ads targeting her, Blackburn’s approval/disapproval numbers were under water in her own poll! Over 50% of the electorate had a very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable view of her. And among independents there were 74.6% with somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Blackburn! 

Perhaps the most damaging data in the Spry poll is the “Forced vote” tally (“If you had to vote today”). In response to that question, Blackburn polled 25.1, Green 18.5, Hatley 20.7 and over 30 for someone else or undecided! Needless to say, as Blackburn distributed the Spry poll, she did not highlight those numbers.

It is interesting that a closer review of a poll that the Blackburn team promoted to assuage concerns of their voters and donors actually reveals some serious cracks in their inevitability argument.

TARGETSMART COMMUNICATIONS POLL
Green touted a poll of 600 likely voters by Democrat-affiliated polling group TargetSmart Communications in mid-September that showed Green trimming Blackburn’s lead significantly to a 45-36% margin, with Hatley at 10%, Pinkston at 2% and 7% undecided.

That poll is somewhat consistent with other data at the time, but polls are snapshots in time and there has been significant movement in the last thirty days.

POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE POLL. An independent poll of 873 likely voters from Political Intelligence conducted about a week ago, also tilted the construction in a somewhat favorable way to Republicans: 48% Republicans, 22% Democrats and 30% independent.

The results: Blackburn 36%, Green 34%, Hatley 19%, Undecided 11%. Once again, Blackburn is plagued by very high unfavorable impressions from voters: 37% favorable, 53% unfavorable. She benefits from extremely high name identification with over 90% of Tennessee voters knowing who she is. Blackburn’s problem is that because they know her, it will be hard to change their impression of her.

Green and Hatley still have room to grow and increase their positive impressions among voters, with over 50% having no impression of Hatley at all. Money can improve that, and he does have money to spend over the next few weeks. However, he still has to move his numbers into the mid-to-high 30s while pushing both Green and Blackburn lower if he wants to pull off a political upset of epic proportions.

TEXT GENERATED DATA. Finally, Hatley has pushed out a poll from five upper East Tennessee counties showing him getting 36% and leading both Blackburn and Green. That pole was conducted by a massive text blast with voters deciding whether or not and how to respond. It’s unclear how accurately that process will reflect the final vote on November 3. Hatley promises to release more data throughout the week from other areas of the state.

The bottom line? The last two weeks of the general election will bring plenty of chaos and confusion. The Governor’s race is still Marsha Blackburn’s to lose, but there is definitely an opportunity for Green if a perfect storm occurs, and perhaps for Hatley as well, depending on unpredictable events and news over the next week. 

And let’s not forget the Tennessee Press Association debate that will include Green, Hatley and Pinkston with Blackburn declining to participate. That will definitely draw attention, but will it move votes?

Don’t blink, you might miss something.

Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.