Thus far, with the November 3 Election Day approaching there have been very few polls concerning the Governor’s race that have been made available publicly.
The first, from the Beacon Center that surveyed in early August before Independent David Hatley ramped up his campaign, showed Marsha Blackburn in a strong position.
The Beacon poll of likely voters had Blackburn leading Green, 55% to 34%. Among registered voters the race was tighter, with Blackburn leading 46-33%.
Interestingly, the Beacon poll also showed President Trump’s approval rating dropping below 50% in Tennessee. Because of Blackburn’s close ties to Trump, and promotion of those ties in her primary campaign, that may be a red flag for her campaign in the coming weeks. Trump voters largely stay home on election days when he is not on the ballot, as is the case this year.
Turning out, those voters will be critical to Blackburn in the next 40 days. The Beacon poll actually reflected that potential problem with about half of those registered voters polled dropping off when questioned as to whether they were LIKELY voters. Blackburn needs a large turn out of registered Republican voters in the state, particularly having secured only 43% of Republican primary voters.
A new poll was released this week by a left leaning PAC tied to a Green donor that shows Green gaining on Marsha Blackburn.
The poll, conducted by TargetSmart Communications, asked 600 likely voters a series of questions relevant to the race. When initially asked who they planned to vote for, 45 percent said Blackburn, 36 percent said Green, 10 percent said independent David Hatley and 2 percent said independent Lauren Pinkston. The remaining 7 percent indicated they were undecided. Those numbers tend to reflect the registered voter data from the Beacon poll, though the sample size is pretty small.
A typical Democrat base vote in statewide races in Tennessee, with a credible candidate, is 38-42%. So Green seems to be on track for that sort of finish. She could do better, perhaps, if Democrats in the state or nationally, give her a surge in funding in the coming weeks.
Blackburn has now polled in the mid 40s, and got 43% in the primary. Those numbers are well below the typical Republican vote in state races. Arguably she has room to grow her numbers if Republicans coalesce around her. But a typical Republican has never had to contend with a well funded independent drawing from her base like Hatley is doing. If Hatley continues to spend and campaign effectively, he could hold Marsha to a low 40s result.
Pollsters conducting the TargetSmart poll provided “biographical descriptions” about the candidates to respondents, and each candidate was rated more positively after those statements, after which voters narrowly ranked Green (42 percent) above Blackburn (41 percent) when asked who they “trust to address the issues most important to voters.” Another 12 percent said neither, and 4 percent rated both equally.
Not surprisingly, Green embraced the new poll.
“Once voters learn both candidates’ full bios, Jerri LEADS Blackburn 42 percent to 41 percent!,” the caption on Green’s Instagram post reads.
Blackburn’s campaign rebuffed the poll numbers saying it is just “another poll in the governor’s race designed to convince donors to give to a candidate who won’t win, but this time, funded by a radical socialist group.” Blackburn has refused to debate the Democrat nominee because she is a “socialist,” according to Blackburn.
There is a basis for skepticism about the “independent” poll, besides the small sample size.While the poll was not directly commissioned by Green’s campaign, it was paid for by the Progress Fund, a political action committee funded by Knoxville developer Phil Lawson, who has donated $50,000 to the PAC this year and is listed as treasurer. So far, Green is the only candidate to receive funding from that PAC.
Green has pointed out that her campaign did not commission the poll and that the Progress Fund released it independently. It was conducted by a reputable pollster using scientific data and weighted toward Republicans, according to Green’s team.
The 45-36-10 split among Blackburn-Green-Hatley, if accurate, may reflect internal polling of the Blackburn team, particularly in view of the hyper aggressive attacks they have launched on independent Hatley in the last two weeks. Campaigns with “insurmountable” leads don’t usually engage in the way that Blackburn is doing.
If Hatley, who is clearly targeting the Blackburn republican voter base with his ad campaign and travels, can elevate his numbers to 15-18% that would theoretically drive Blackburn‘s numbers down to something in the range of 38 to 40%. With his spending over the next few weeks expected to double or triple what Blackburn has available, that is entirely possible.
Green has pointed out that her campaign did not commission the poll and that the Progress Fund released it independently. It was conducted by a reputable pollster using scientific data and weighted toward Republicans, according to Green’s team.
The 45-36-10 split among Blackburn-Green-Hatley, if accurate, may reflect internal polling of the Blackburn team, particularly in view of the hyper aggressive attacks they have launched on independent Hatley in the last two weeks. Campaigns with “insurmountable” leads don’t usually engage in the way that Blackburn is doing.
If Hatley, who is clearly targeting the Blackburn republican voter base with his ad campaign and travels, can elevate his numbers to 15-18% that would theoretically drive Blackburn‘s numbers down to something in the range of 38 to 40%. With his spending over the next few weeks expected to double or triple what Blackburn has available, that is entirely possible.
Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.
