Political Notebook: The Senate Sweepstakes If Blackburn Is Elected, Part 1

Even before Election Day finally arrives, there’s already rampant speculation of what happens next if Marsha Blackburn is elected Governor. She is already announced her intent to be sworn in as Governor in order for her to make the selection for her Senate replacement rather than allowing Governor Bill to do that shortly after the November election. As I noted and many others have since pointed out, Blackburn’s plan of simultaneously being Governor and Senator (even if only for a few minutes) in order for her to select her replacement would be a violation about the Tennessee and U.S. Constitution. The irony and hypocrisy of Blackburn swearing to uphold the Tennessee Constitution while simultaneously violating that oath will certainly not escape notice. And whoever she would select under those circumstances would be tainted under a dark cloud from the moment they are named. That may not matter to Blackburn, but it should.

The better option would be for her replacement to be named by Governor Bill Lee shortly after her election in order for the Senate replacement to immediately advance in seniority over all of the other new senators elected on November 3 who will not take office until January. That seniority head start would be a huge advantage for Tennessee. Again, it may not matter to Blackburn. But it should.

Several names are frequently listed as those most likely to receive the Senate appointment if Blackburn is successful on Tuesday. There are a lot of moving parts. Will President Trump weigh in privately or publicly on who he prefers and cannot swing the selection in a particular way? Will Blackburn ultimately allow Lee to make the pick, even if he simply selects who she desires? The appointment will only be valid for two years until an election is held in 2028 for the remaining two years of Blackburn’s term. The seat will again be up for election in 2030 for a full six year term. Congressman Tim Burchett has already made it clear he intends to run in 2028 if he is not named to the Senate seat. Is that an indication that he has surmised or been told that he will not be the pick? Or, does he believe making it clear that he wants the seat is intended to dispel any doubt and perhaps increase the odds of him getting the nod? 

Let’s go through the names mentioned most often and some of their pluses and minuses. 

TIM BURCHETT. The Knoxville Congressman has dramatically increased his travels and speeches across the state in the last year. He is also improved his fundraising, although it still falls short of the ten million or more he will need to run a race in 2028. He is very visible in the state and nationally and is quite popular with the conservative base in and out of Tennessee. He is also a favorite of President Donald Trump. 

At least one political analyst in the state has suggested that Burchett would not be named because it might affect the balance of power in the House due to the vacancy that his appointment would create and the delay in a replacement being elected in a special election, which would take several months. First, that might be a consideration if Republicans barely keep control of the House, although an appointment being made in November would dramatically limit the time that that congressional seat would be vacant pending a special election for his replacement. If Republicans lose control of the House, then the delay in replacement filling, the vacancy would be essentially irrelevant.

Like most of the other top contenders, Burchett as relied upon the consulting services of Marsha Blackburn‘s political consultant Ward Baker, who will be intimately involved in actually making the pick. As he provided Marsha and Ward with sufficient funding benefits to get the nod? Probably not.

GLENN JACOBS.
Former Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs, currently serving as Blackburn Campaign Treasurer, seem to be the early front runner for the spot if it became available. There were a lot of rumors that he had been promised the slot in exchange for not seeking the Republican nomination himself and supporting Blackburn instead. If that promise was made, has it survived the shelf life over the past year? If Burchett is selected most assume that Jacobs would easily step in to his congressional seat, essentially following the path that Burchett made from County Mayor to Congress himself. There’s also a lot of speculation that Jacobs would emerge in Blackburn‘s cabinet if he is not picked for the Senate vacancy. 

Jacobs is more Libertarian than conservative, and has even described himself in that way. Unlike Burchett, who has a very solid voting record on key issuesin Congress, Jacobs would be more of a mystery and somewhat of a risky pick from that standpoint. 

Jacob has also relied on the advice and counsel of Ward Baker. However, he is not a wealthy “self funder” nor has he shown a track record of fundraising success at the level needed to keep the seat in 2028. Whoever gets the position will have the advantage of incumbency, but as we have seen in 2026, that is no guarantee of reelection. Bottom line? Jacob remains a strong possibility, but his prospects may have dimmed over the last six months.

STAY TUNED FOR PART TWO! PETE HEGSETH, DAMON HININGER, CAMERON SEXTON, OR SOMEONE ELSE?