POLITICAL NOTEBOOK: Two-Week Sprint to November 3

We are definitely in the campaign silly season with a few bizarre nuggets capturing our attention.

GREEN (NOT JERRI) RUNNING GUNS TO HAITI! Former Tennessee Congressman Mark Green was back in the news this week with news that he was involved in a gun-dealing scheme for the Haitian government that also involved Dolly Parton’s nephew. Green was paid $600,000 for his role in arranging the deal, which appears to be perfectly legal. Except for the reported $7 million in missing Haitian funds that both Green and the partners in Fencebridge Strategic Risk (the company at the center of the arms deal) deny having. Fencebridge was founded in Tennessee in 2015 by Daniel Nozell, Parton’s longtime manager, and Bryan Seaver, one of Parton’s nephews who was also her head of security. Were any other Tennessee consultants involved in this transaction?

BUYING VOTES WITH CHICK-FIL-A GIFT CARDS?

Tennessee once had a reported tradition of bottles of whiskey being given out at certain polling places to lock down votes, but welcome to the modern era! Jonesboro mayoral candidate Brian Ponder is facing accusations of vote-buying after he and his team distributed Chick-fil-A coupons to voters at the Jonesboro Middle School early voting polling location last week. 

Vest says items of “Insignificant value” are generally permissible under Tennessee election laws, provided they are available to everyone and distributed outside the mandatory 100-foot boundary of the polling place. These particular coupons were distributed to incoming voters tucked inside Ponder’s campaign material, and in many cases handed to prospective voters by Ponder personally. He and his campaign stopped handing out the coupons once police intervened, and the incident remains under official review.

EARLY VOTING IS A MIXED BAG SO FAR. The first few days of early voting have produced a few hotspots, but it is difficult to tell who might benefit. Comparisons to 2022 vote turnout are not particularly helpful since there were no seriously contested congressional races, Bill Lee’s gubernatorial reelection was a walk (winning 65-33%), and neither U.S. Senate seat was on the ballot. So the fact that voting totals are up the first six days of early voting is not surprising. 

This year there are at least three contested US House races, and a spirited race for Governor. The fact that about 135,000 fewer voters have cast votes this year compared to 2018 should raise red flags for Republicans. 

Democrats definitely appear more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. And with Donald Trump not on the ballot there is justifiable concern that his Trump/MAGA voters may sit this one out. 

That’s the primary reason he is barnstorming around the country to generate enthusiasm from his space. His two visits to Tennessee over the last several weeks have not produced significant results…yet. There is still time for Republicans to get more motivated, but the clock is ticking.

At this point, it appears that Tennessee will probably see a 9–0 GOP congressional delegation, and keep supermajorities in both the state House and Senate, though the loss of 4-5 seats in the House may happen. Some of those legislators have barely hung on in “good” years; this is not shaping up to be one of those.

While Marsha Blackburn is still likely to be elected Governor, that is by no means certain. And her very low approval ratings across the state will continue to plague her through the final hours of voting.

The one thing we can be certain about is that there are surprises yet to come. So buckle up and hang on. The real “ride” is just beginning.

Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.