A new poll from the Beacon Center shows that Senator Marsha Blackburn starts out with a commanding 21-point advantage over Democrat Jerri Green in the November 3 race for governor, 55% to 34% among likely voters. Blackburn’s big lead comes after a hard-fought and divisive Republican primary against Congressman John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts that left some bruised feelings within the party, but any lingering divisions have apparently not dented her seeming path to victory heading into November.
The Beacon poll showed 8% support for “independent” candidate. Two significant independent candidates are running: David Hatley, who is expected to spend as much as $20 million in the race and who has recently started spending large amounts on both TV and online advertising, and Lauren Pinkston. Hatley has just embarked on a statewide bus tour and his name are identification is expected to grow dramatically over the next few weeks which will likely impact future polling data.
The Beacon poll had 14% undecided in the race.
The Beacon poll of 1200 registered Tennessee voters was conducted August 15-26.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s popularity in the state has dipped underwater according to the poll data. In a surprising twist, President Trump, who has endorsed Blackburn, has slipped below 50% in job approval for the first time since Beacon began polling the state in 2023, with just 48% of voters approving of his job performance and 51% disapproving (-3%).
Beacon CEO Justin Owen stated, “This is a substantial development in a deep red state with a number of potentially competitive races this year. While Trump is barely underwater with voters, this is a monumental shift from his 30-point victory here just two years ago. While our poll shows Senator Blackburn and Senator Hagerty in good shape in their respective races, this downward trend for Trump and the Republican brand generally could mean national Democrats spend more time and money in some of the congressional races this year.”
While Blackburn has a huge lead in the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race has an even bigger spread, with incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty leading Democrat Marquita Bradshaw by 25 points (58% to 33%) among likely voters in a 2020 rematch. While a 25-point lead is substantial, it is worth noting that it is down two points from Hagerty’s 27-point victory over Bradshaw in the 2020 race.
Looking ahead to 2028, Vice President J.D. Vance is the dominant frontrunner among Tennessee Republican primary voters, leading with 56%, more than double Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 22% and well ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s 11%.
The Democratic field is far more fragmented. Among Democratic primary voters, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with just 30% support, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom (18%), former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (11%), Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10%), Senator Mark Kelly (8%), Senator Jon Ossoff (6%), and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (2%).
The extensive Beacon poll also surveyed a variety of issues, including AI data centers, affordability, and approval of the Tennessee legislature. The full poll and crosstabs can be seen here.
Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.
