Republican campaigns focused on the August 6 primary are beginning their final surge. The mail and tv his thus far have been a trickle, but the upswing has already begun. Most of the onslaught will hit right about July 4. Traditional wisdom says a message takes two weeks to penetrate, so the early July media barrage is timed for the July 17 commencement of early voting. Early voting matters more than ever as most votes are cast during that period.
Some of the current media buys, especially for congressional races and the Governors race, are intended to bump numbers to produce positive poll results needed to convince donors to dig deeper or to seek a Trump endorsement.
One of the races seeing more mail and tv, and with polls reportedly in the field or imminent, is the 6th District battle for the seat being vacated by a congressman John Rose. State Rep. Johnny Garrett and former Congressman Van Hilleary have the visibility and resources to make a winning final push to August 6. Money will matter in the final weeks and neither Jon Henry https://henryforcongress.com nor Natisha Brooks https://www.natishaforcongress.comhave it available.
A Cygnal poll https://www.cygn.al taken prior to the May redistricting that dropped Sumner from the district and added some counties that Hilleary previously represented, is dated but gives some insight into the baseline starting point as the campaigns move into the final six to seven weeks.
In the initial ballot test, Hilleary and Henry are tied at 12%, with Garrett in third with 6%. Not surprisingly, as the poll was conducted very early in the election process, 67% of the likely GOP identified primary voters polled were undecided.
After a mix of positive and negative messaging about Hilleary and Garrett, Hilleary searches to a 21 point lead. Voters clearly gravitated to his proven track record in Congress and particularly embraced his military experience. The informed ballot results moved Hilleary to 33%, while Henry and Garrett remained at 12% and 5%, respectively. Undecided remained high at 48%.
One of the main things this poll reveals is that the new map, which essentially eliminated Garrett’s primary base of support in the suburban county, critically damaged his chances. Garrett’s name identification in the “new” district is basically zero, while he was drawing about 25% overall support when Sumner County was included. The district is now about 74% rural, compared to 50% before the legislature adopted new maps across Tennessee. Can Garrett win over rural voters? Perhaps, but it will take time and significant money, and the time is rapidly ticking away.
When the poll focused on the “most likely” Republican primary voters, those who have voted in four of the last GOP primaries, or three of the last four, Hilleary’s advantage before he and Garrett launch their heavy media assaults, is clear. Hilleary earns a combined preference from 20.5%, with Garrett at 7.8%. Henry tallied 12%, with Natisha Brooks at just 1.3%. 58.4% were undecided, again revealing how early in the process these numbers were assembled with even the most engaged Republicans uncommitted.
Nevertheless, with Hilleary’s initial advantage, and with only he and Garrett having the financial resources to move votes in the weeks ahead, the race is clearly between the two of them with Hilleary having a significant head start and geographic advantage moving toward August 6.
As noted earlier, both Hilleary and Garrett have begun their media outreach to voters, with mail, tv, and online being their driving forces. Both are claiming close association with Trump. Hilleary’s first ad plays on that and his military experience, which voters clearly appreciate based on the Cygnal poll. https://tristardaily.com/van-hilleary-airs-first-commercial-in-6th-district-congressional-race/
Garrett’s first tv ad, and radio, focused on his Trump support as well. https://tristardaily.com/johnny-garrett-drops-first-ad-in-6th-district-congressional-race He also touted his support for protecting girls sports and being tough on illegal immigration, issues presumably reflecting voter concerns in his own polls.
Garrett, with a slight head-start with his tv buy and a few mail pieces, is reportedly already in the field with a poll to gauge the impact. Hilleary will likely start polling in a week or so to measure the results of his own media. Both will tighten their messaging, on both issues and attacks, as they review the data revealing what best moves that massive undecided number in their favor.
As we gain access to more polling results, in this race and others, we will share it here, so stay tuned.Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.
