I don’t really buy into any poll that I have not had access to the cross tabs detailing the questions, composition, etc. And some polling companies are notoriously willing to give candidates and media the numbers they want. That said, we are getting a flurry of poll data from campaigns that are worth taking a look at, even with a grain of salt.
OGLES V. HATCHER.
The fight in the 5th District has definitely narrowed and Hatcher has a real shot to unseat Ogles. $2 million in third-party PAC money from Invest in Tomorrow supporting Hatcher and hitting Ogles has and will have a huge impact in the final days. Their latest “workhorse” ad is very effective.
And they have released details, showing that the race is essentially a dead heat with their ability to exploit the weaknesses of Ogles likely to move voters strongly in Hatcher’s direction in the final week.
On the initial ballot, Andy Ogles receives 33.0% and Charlie Hatcher receives 31.5%, with 35.5% undecided.
After voters receive information about both candidates, Hatcher leads 44.9% to 24.0%, with 31.1% undecided. The poll also found that 61.1% of respondents were more likely to support Hatcher after learning about his background and record.
Poll was conducted among 1,046 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of ±3.3%. (And yes, they did share the cross tabs.)
Ogles hosted a hurried teletownhall with Trump this week that was intended to stem Hatcher’s momentum. It is not clear whether it was adequately promoted or particularly effective.
Ogles continues to be hampered by his atrociously poor fundraising that has severely limited his ability to respond to both Hatcher and his PAC support. The Freedom Caucus has rolled about a half a million dollars into the campaign effort to support Ogles, but with that ad five divided between Memphis and Nashville, it is outweighed by the $2 million being spent by Invest in Tomorrow for Hatcher. Can the Trump endorsement win it for Andy? We will find out next week.
Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.
