Former Tennessee General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps was sworn in as a member of Congress on Thursday, just two days after winning a special election in the state’s 7th Congressional District. He defeated Nashville Democrat Aftyn Behn by 9-points. Because this was a special election to fill former congressman Mark Green’s unexpired term, Van Epps will have to run again next fall. The question is, will Behn run again?
President Trump carried District 7 by 22 points against then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Is the 7th really a safe Republican seat? Democratic Strategist Jasper Hendricks doesn’t think so. “We have to start building our ground game because Tennessee, no matter how people look at it, Tennessee is not a red state. It’s a state that does not vote,” Hendricks said. Longtime republican analyst Steve Gill see’s it differently. The national party viewed the district as one the republican nominee should win by 10 points. Van Epps 9-point victory in a short, special election is very close to that. “So I don’t really see the momentum. When you see national Democrats, you don’t target seats to try and flip them if they’re not 2 points or less. You don’t target a 9-point loss,” said Gill.
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One thing is certain, Van Epps will have little time to enjoy his victory. The primary in the 7th District is coming up in August. While he is unlikely to face opposition from his own party so soon, the Democrats will certainly field a candidate, thinking this could be a seat they can flip.
