NINTH MOVES FROM +23 D TO PLUS +10R. Some national political commentators, and a few Republican activists in Tennessee, are claiming that the new 9th district congressional map will result in replacing white Democrat Congressman Steve Cohen (who has represented the majority black Memphis district for two decades) with perennial Republican candidate (black conservative woman) Charlotte Bergmann. As tastefully ironic as that might be it is highly unlikely, and definitely not the done deal that some are reporting.
Bergmann has secured the GOP nomination repeatedly in years past and lost decisively to Cohen each time. In 2018, she lost to Cohen in the general election by an 80-19 margin. In 2020, Bergmann lost 77-20; in 2022, the margin for Cohen was 70-26. In 2024, the result was similar, with Cohen outpacing her 71-26.
Cook Political Report rates the 9th district as a +23 Democrat district (prior to the new map). Bergmann has consistently lost to Cohen by 57 to 60 points! In other words, she has underperformed the district’s makeup by about 25-30 points in every race.
State Senator Brent Taylor of Memphis has already launched his campaign in the “New Ninth” with the endorsements of Tennessee Senators Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn, with an endorsement from President Trump likely not far behind. Taylor has already kick-started his campaign with a personal donation of $1 million. He will be the GOP nominee, and with the District now about a +10 GOP margin, he will replace Cohen. Not Bergmann.
State Rep. Todd Warner has just announced that he plans to seek the GOP nomination in the 9th along with Taylor and Bergmann, by the way.
DEMS DIGGING DEEP IN THE NUMBERS TO FIND SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE. Democrats are looking closely at the political balance in the districts across the state as they seek to cling to some hidden gem of positive news to inspire their base.
The Tennessee Lookout has broken down the numbers to analyze whether the new map puts several previously safe Republican seats into a vulnerable category. They claim that as many as five seats could be up for grabs, giving Democrats a chance at victory in the deep red state.
They specifically see districts 5, 8, and 9 as potential “blue” wins.
To support their assessment, they note that President Trump won in those districts by with 60% in 2024 but only 55-57% in 2020. They note that then Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn relatively narrowly defeated two-term “moderate” Democrat Governor Phil Bredesen in those same areas, claiming that makes the districts even.
First of all, Tennessee has become even more red since 2018. Second, in 2018, Bredesen was a credible and well-funded statewide candidate that Blackburn beat by double digits. Democrats also had a well-funded former Nashville Mayor, Karl Dean, on the ballot for Governor, who also got defeated by Republican Bill Lee by double digits. In 2026 Democrats have not fielded a credible statewide candidate in either the Governor’s race or to challenge Senator Bill Hagerty for reelection. Thus, there are no top of the ticket Democrats to draw voter turnout, nor the resources to communicate whatever message they intend to rely upon other than how much they really, really, really hate Trump.
As noted above, non-partisan Cook Political Report (CPR) rates the 9th as a +10 GOP district. CPR has just moved the 5th from likely R to solid R, with the district moving from about +8 R to +12R. Congressman David Kustoff in the 8th is still a solid R seat. Republicans should avoid complacency, but Democrats will be longshots in all nine congressional battles this Fall.
Democrats are also claiming that the redistricting fight on Capitol Hill last week has united and energized their base and created more unity among the groups that staged the protests. Maybe, but it is unlikely that anyone who watched the videos of their unhinged, radical, foul-mouthed activists at work will be inspired to reward them with political power. There is a reason Democrats are in super-minority status in the state House and Senate, and the behavior of the protesters and their elected representatives in Nashville is unlikely to move the needle in their direction this year.
Steve Gill is the editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.
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