Pending resolution of the court challenges that have been filed from the Left (which are likely to be determined quickly) new congressional district maps have been approved with a new timeline set for candidates to qualify to run being open until the end of next week.
TAYLOR MADE. One of the biggest winners from the new map is State Senator Brent Taylor from Memphis, who announced his campaign for Congress in the new ninth district before the ink on the Governor’s signature was even dry. Taylor not only announced that he was running, but also announced that he had the endorsement of Senators Marsha Blackburn and Bill Hagerty, along with the support of several others who had been mentioned as potential opponents. To top it off, announced that he was immediately putting $1 million of his own money in the coffers to kick start his race.
Taylor will appear on the ballot for Congress, as well as for reelection to his state Senate seat. Assuming he wins the congressional race, which seems almost certain, he will resign his state Senate seat, and that will kickstart a special election to fill his spot.
This is not Taylor’s first shot at a congressional seat with very similar geographic boundaries. In 2002 he ran in a multi-candidate primary that included him, Blackburn (who won), and now Congressman David Kustoff, among others. Like the new district, the then-seventh district that had been drawn and approved by the Democrat-majority legislature at the time, ran from Williamson County to Memphis.
COHEN-CIDENTLY. Congressman Steve Cohen and Rep. Justin Pearson have been running against each other in the heavily Democrat 9th District, with the winner of their primary virtual assured of heading to Washington DC. Now, however, they both reside in the 5th District that runs from Williamson County tracking across Tennessee’s northern border and then down the counties on the state’s western border to Memphis.
Republican Congressman Andy Ogles is the incumbent, and he is seeking reelection in the district that is now a few points more republican than the previous district map. Ogles still faces serious fundraising issues, but is confident that the White House and National Republican organizations will support him financially in the Fall.
Ogles’ primary opponent, former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, was drawn out of the district in the new map but by virtue of living in Williamson County, which is in both the 9th and 5th districts, he can still pursue his campaign against Ogles despite not actually living within the boundaries of the district. While a tough race, it’s better than him taking on Taylor in the 9th.
Similarly, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder is no longer within the boundaries of the 5th, but since Maury County also straddles the fifth and ninth, he can still run in the Democratic primary with the hopes of challenging Ogles in the Fall. Molder will, however, I have to deal with defeating both Pearson and Cohen in order to get to the general election. Molder had an uphill battle looming against Ogles in the old district and the climb is now steeper with the new map. He also has more difficult primary than he did before, when the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had already endorsed him, despite other candidates running for the nomination. Will the DCCC stick to their nomination as he runs against a black legislator and an incumbent Democrat member of Congress?
Ogles was a clear winner in the Map Lottery, and we have to place Cohen, Pearson and Molder in the loser column.
WHY DID THE LEGISLATURE GARROTE GARRETT? The Republican primary in the 6th District, the seat being vacated by congressman John Rose as he seeks to be elected Governor, has been a highly anticipated battle of giants. Both State Representative Johnny Garrett and former Congressman Van Hilleary (who most recently served with chief of staff for Rose) are well funded and had great credentials and contacts throughout the district. Both live in Sumner County, though it was expected that Garrett would have an advantage in the county due to his family history and representing part of the county for several years.
But with the stroke of a pen, Garrett’s fellow, republican legislators drew Sumner County (and about 200,000 votes) out of the sixth district, except for a tiny sliver that contains both Garrett and Hilleary’s residences, allowing them to continue running in the district they have been campaigning across for months now. To add insult to injury to Garrett, the Republican legislature also added several counties in Hilleary’s presumed stronghold in the Upper Cumberland, including a few he had represented previously in Congress. It is not clear whether Garrett silent mouthed “ thanks for nothing boys” or perhaps “WTF” when he first saw the map, but it is doubtful that he jumped for joy or started high-fiving his colleagues.
Garrett has put a loan of about $900,000 into his campaign. Does he spend what he has raised and is raising and hold the loan amount back rather than risk losing it, or go all in? He has a much tougher primary than before, and his media buys in the next few weeks will reveal what he’s really thinking.
Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.
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