With the November 3 Election Day only about 45 days away and the Governor’s race getting more intense, what is the path to victory for each of the three major candidates?
MARSHA BLACKBURN.
Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn is the front runner, based not only upon Tennessee’s track record of being a dependable red state but on her significant name, recognition lead over her opponents and recent reelection campaign for the US Senate. She can also point to a recent Targoz/Beacon Center poll showing her leading democrat Jerri Green by a 46 to 33 margin among registered voters. (That poll was conducted in early August, before independent David Hatley began any serious campaigning.) https://tristardaily.com/beacon-center-poll-shows-blackburn-and-hagerty-with-commanding-leads/ The poll claimed Blackburn has a 55-34 lead with likely voters. Hatley is hitting right at Blackburn’s GOP base, both on style and issues, and the aggressive attacks that Blackburn has launched directly at him indicate that it is leaving a mark. Marsha depended upon the claim of “inevitability” and having an insurmountable lead in her primary race, that dwindled from a 50 point lead to a 10 point margin with her securing 43% of the final primary vote. She is deploying the same tactic in the general election.
Some experts claim that Hatley is no threat because an independent has never received more than a few percentage points in a general election in Tennessee before. That is true, but no independent has never spent $10-$15 million before as Hatley may do. Blackburn is certainly not acting as if she has the lead reflected in the earlier Beacon poll, probably because her own internal polls show that it has dramatically narrowed. The GOP base in Tennessee does not seem particularly enthused at this point, and with President Trump not on the ballot his MAGA base may sit home.
Bottom line? Blackburn’s race to lose. But sports teams that try to sit in leads and play to “not lose” often do. That is her biggest risk at this point.
Democrat Jerri Green is running an active though underfunded, at this point, effort relying on grassroots, a well-organized ground game and a Democrat base (particularly in Memphis) that appears more energized than the Republican base in Tennessee. She is to the left of most Tennessee voters on issues ranging from abortion to guns to illegal immigration to the economy (Marsha refuses to debate her, calling her a socialist) and social issues. She will have to depend almost exclusively on Democrat votes, particularly since Hatley is targeting issues that appeal to the larger Republican base in Tennessee. However, she is not a radical DSA type, and her tone and tenor are very professional and moderate, which will appeal to the type of voters that supported Governor Phil Bredeson in the past.
In recent years Democrat candidates have hovered in the 36-40% range in “red” state Tennessee statewide races. In what may become a somewhat blue wave nationally, hinging on Iran war fatigue, high gas prices and perceived affordability concerns driven by those pump prices, tariff concerns in agriculture communities, and “party out of power” midterm history, Green could see her Dem base share hit 43-44%. Can the votes pulled from the remaining 57-56% by Pinkston and Hatley drop Marsha as low as 40-42? The Beacon poll had her at 46 before Hatley started cutting into her numbers, so it is certainly possible. How much and how effectively he spends in the next 45 days could dictate the result. Hard to see Green surpassing 45, but depending on how the remaining votes get divided among Marsha and the independents, that could be enough for her to win and become the first female Governor in Tennessee history. What kind of Administration would she have? She would be kneecapped by the fact that Republicans are certain to keep super majorities in both the state House and state Senate. But let’s see how the numbers roll over the next three weeks before we even have that discussion.
DAVID HATLEY.
Independent businessman David Hatley from East Tennessee is running a campaign with the resources we have never seen from an independent. His events are well organized, professional and slickly produced, his advertising both online and on television have been excellent, and he has a great story to tell. He and his wife are a great campaign duo. The fact that he is drawing so much fire from the Blackburn campaign underlines the fact that he is a true threat to her ambitions. How hard will he hit her over the next few weeks? She still has a huge name recognition lead over him but money can close the gap. However, he still has to bring her down as he sees his numbers rise.
Blackburn has given both Green and Hatley plenty of policy issues to work with. She is on the wrong side of Tennessee voters on issues like supporting giving $30 million in taxpayer money to Starbucks, backing the controversial Flock cameras, supporting AI data centers, and moving nuclear waste from Nevada to Tennessee. Her support for the school voucher scheme and promise to make it universal is also a deadweight she is lugging forward with growing opposition across the state. Hatley and Green are both taking advantage of the policy divide on those issues that she has created for herself.
The challenge for Hatley is how many Dems he can draw from Green and how many Republicans he can pull from Marsha. Can he cobble together a coalition that gets him to 43-45? Is the magic bullet his ability to convince hundreds of thousands of independent voters in Tennessee who normally stay home to turn out and vote for him?
We have seen candidates in Tennessee in statewide races spend more than $20 million in campaigns over the course of a whole year. We have never seen someone spend $10 to 15 million in about 60 days nor felt the impact that might have when smartly and properly deployed. Is Hatley the guy and this the year?
(LAUREN PINKSTON is another credible independent in the race who is smart, articulate and running an interesting campaign that lacks the financial backing to move the needle. Probably ends up with 2-3%, which may impact who wins, depending on who she draws that small percentage from.)
Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily.
