Before we turn our full political attention to the November general election in Tennessee, there are a few remaining aspects of the primary race for governor that deserve reflection.
While it seems clear that Monty Fritts served as a significant spoiler for John Rose’s gubernatorial ambitions, it is also obvious that Marsha Blackburn’s name identification lead at the outset of the race proved insurmountable.
Blackburn was fresh off a second statewide election to the U.S. Senate. She was also the focus of a well funded pro-voucher ad barrage promoting the expansion of the Tennessee voucher program. She wasn’t actually “inevitable,” despite that branding by her team, but her 98% name identification from the get-go made catching up nearly impossible for both Rose and Fritts.
A review of the map of counties won by each candidate underlines the fact that Marsha prevailed thanks to that name recognition lead rather than any compelling issues. Fritts carried counties in and around his state house district. Rose dominated in and around his 6th congressional district. (Unlike some members of Congress, Rose was not really aggressive in the past several years seeking media attention that could have expanded his base of name ID. Not his style, but some Tim Burchett-isms and press availability could have helped.) Where they were relatively unknown, Marsha basically ran the table.
Blackburn’s repeated self inflicted wounds, from the Ben Hall hallway non-interview elevator-gate, to defending the Starbucks deal as millions being recoverable from “payroll taxes”, to the fortune cookie ad, created opportunities that neither opponent successfully capitalized upon. Her support for AI data centers and for a Department of Energy scheme to dump nuclear waste in Tennessee presented additional issues that could have been exploited. (And Democrat nominee Jerri Green and Independent David Hatley are likely to do so.)
Marsha had, and has, vulnerabilities that would have required creative and agile campaigns increasing their own visibility early while also inflicting damage on her. Also early. Because Rose and Fritts failed to do so, Marsha was able to sit on her formidable lead, although it shrank dramatically nevertheless. She will likely rely on the same strategy heading to a victory in November.
But while she is poised to win, she will almost certainly squander a chance to develop an issue-mandate election that could arm her with the ammo to actually propose and pass legislation that would benefit Tennessee. Winning simply for the sake of winning doesn’t enable her to assume office with a “package” supported by voters that would compel the legislature to adopt.
Universal vouchers, meaning expanding the questionable private school voucher plan to EVERY school kid in Tennessee (which she supported early this summer), puts the state on the path to economic disaster that other states following that formula are already experiencing. But with tens of millions of dark money PACs funding her campaign and legislative races, that issue is already bought and paid for…consequences be damned.
But what else? No Chinese acquisition of farmland? Already banned in Tennessee and they don’t own any acreage anyway. No cell phones in schools? Already severely limited by the Legislature except for lunch and recess. Is that really the major remaining block to academic achievement in public schools?
Oh, and Trump likes her and has said nice things about her. Not enough to endorse her in the primary, though. But what does that really mean in terms of a state level policy agenda that goes beyond talking points under a Governor Blackburn?
Marsha is running to win. And that’s great for her consultants, for those hoping to get jobs in her Administration, or to curry favor with her and her consultants to get state contracts. But it is not a formula for proactive governing, exhibiting leadership or improving the lives of Tennesseans present and future.
Sadly it is exactly what we usually get in statewide campaigns for Governor in Tennessee and across the county. Even if we should expect and demand better.
