A flurry of recent polls have been released by Democrat candidates that claim to show them within the margin of error, or leading, after “informing” voters about their opponents. There are “push” polls that unfairly disparage an opponent that can produce a desired (but usually short term) result, and others designed to figure out what issues move voters most effectively. Without seeing the cross tabs and the details, it’s difficult to determine where these recent polls fall between those two categories.
The polls all seem to come from the same Democrat polling firm, Impact Research, so that is one red flag that raises doubt about the accuracy of the data. The very small sample size of these polls, 400, also raises skepticism, although the fact that they are “likely” voters makes sense, depending on whether or not the voters defined themselves as likely (shock: respondents often lie) or whether the polls were constructed to target past frequent voters. So with a variety of valid disclaimers let’s review the numbers.
COPELAND v. VAN EPPS. Incumbent Republican Matt Van Epps won the seat in a special election after former Congressman Mark Green exited. He has been very low profile ever since, and his campaign in the last few months has not generated any significant energy or visibility. The district was withdrawn by the legislature earlier this year and it retains a strong Republican edge, so Van Epps should be safe.
Reportedly, he has not been conducting any polls in the district and has essentially been flying blind. His fundraising has been anemic.
Darden Copeland is an effective campaigner and attractive candidate for the Dems. So far, the national Democratic Party has not placed any funds into the race, and until they do, he is still a long shot. He is clearly hoping some positive polling will pull them in.
According to the poll data, Van Epps is relatively unknown in his district. That is not particularly surprising, given that he was just elected, the district has been redrawn since he was elected, and he is not a high profile “chase the media” type of congressman. Nevertheless, it does reveal that he could be vulnerable given the current national climate and the fact that Trump voters stay home when he is not on the ballot. The pollster himself acknowledges the opportunity and the challenge for Copeland: “The data shows that in a favorable political climate and with proper contrastive communications, this seat can flip.” “Contrastive communications” costs money, and for Democrats to take this seat it would cost a lot — which at this point does not seem to be available to Copeland.
(Democrat Chaz Molder is using the same polling firm in his race against Charlie Hatcher. His mid August poll showed him trailing Hatcher 48-40%.)
JERRI GREEN v. MARSHA BLACKBURN. Green released a poll from a Democrat polling firm a few weeks ago showing her gaining ground in the governor’s race. There haven’t been any updated polls made public since then, and although there are consistent reports, the Blackburn is having a hard time raising money and is running short on funds, there’s also no evidence that Green is raking in the necessary dough to close the gap.
Green did release some polling data from several state House races where Republicans currently hold seats in Memphis, Clarksville and Knoxville where Blackburn may be trailing Green in those districts. Other polls in those races have shown similar results. None of those districts are easy GOP majorities, and several of those House members certainly appear vulnerable.
Could that translate into a statewide trend for Green? Not without the financial resources needed to utilize the same “contrastive communications” other Democrats in Tennessee must deploy soon.
At this point, most if not all of Blackburn’s attack ads have been targeted at independent David Hatley. If she suddenly starts targeting Green, that will indicate that her polling says she needs to push Green‘s numbers down in order to survive the votes lost to Hatley. Watch the TV and online ads closely. If Blackburn or her allies start hitting Green, that means Blackburn and consultant Ward Baker have hit DEFCON five.
