Betting markets are already responding to the news of the U.S. capture and detainment of dictator Nicolas Maduro. SincePresident Donald Trump said that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela for the near term, the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag aren’t predicting that the U.S. will use military force against Venezuela before April, with the numbers equating to just a 20% probability of an invasion happening.
How about Venezuela becoming the 51st State? There’s a large camp that thinks it could happen given the country’s oil supply, but the chances of that happening are just 22%, according to the 7/2 odds below. In the wake of Maduro’s capture, many are speculating that Trump will go after Iran’s Ali Khamenei next. The odds are against Khamenei being captured before next year. Finally, going back to Venezuela, the odds support Maduro being convicted of a crime this year, and the chance of Maria Corina Machado becoming President of Venezuela are a tossup.
Venezuela prop bets can be seen here: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/venezuela
Will U.S. Congress authorize military force against Venezuela before April 1, 2026?
Yes 4/1 (+400)
No 1/7 (-700)
Will Nicolas Maduro be convicted by U.S. court before Jan. 1, 2027?
Yes 2/3 (-150)
No 11/10 (+110)
Will Maria Corina Machado become Venezuela President before Jan. 1, 2027?
Yes 5/6 (-120)
No 5/6 (-120)
Will Ali Khamenei be out as Iran Supreme Leader before Jan. 1, 2027?
Yes 11/10 (+110)
No 2/3 (-150)
Which will become 51st State during Trump’s second term?
Greenland 5/2 (+250)
Puerto Rico 5/2 (+250)
Venezuela 7/2 (+350)
US Virgin Islands 7/1
Guam 8/1
Canada 10/1
Washington D.C. 10/1
Israel 16/1
Mexico 25/1
Ukraine 33/1
Ireland 50/1
Mar-a-Lago 65/1
Gaza 80/1
United Kingdom 100/1
