Following the successful primary campaign of Senator Marsha Blackburn for Governor attention quickly turned to the November 3 general election. Democrats have nominated Jerri Green as their standard bearer.
The Shelby County public defender says she sees a path to victory, but her left of center policy objectives, while not nearly as outlandish as those of the woke DSA nominees that Dems are nominating across the country, are still out of step with mainstream conservative values embraced by the overwhelming number of Tennessee voters. Green is a smart, energetic and attractive candidate who will use those attributes to contrast with Blackburn.
Two years ago, President Donald Trump swamped Kamala Harris by a 30 point margin, 64-34%. With an expected lower vote turnout in Tennessee, an arguably more enthused Democratic Party base, a still divided GOP primary base and the perception that the race is already over (and Sen. Bill Hagerty running essentially unopposed) Green can perhaps get to a 60-40 split, if Democrats come to the table with the financial support needed to move the needle above their recent statewide defeats. Will they? Doubtful, and nearing the gap beyond it 20 point gap would require a huge commitment from the Left both in the state and nationally.
As the late night tv commercials loudly exclaim: “BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!” Independent candidate Lauren Pinkston has been traveling the state promoting her candidacy as an Independent as someone focused on “solutions not sides.”
Like Green she is young, smart attractive and articulate, but lacks both the resources and party organization that Green can rely upon. Although a large number of Tennessean identify themselves as independents, most still vote for the Republicans or Democrats when they enter the voting booth. The issues she is focused on seem more in line with the Democrats, so she and Green will likely share a lot of voter support. On November 4, she is likely to tally 3 to 4% of the statewide vote.
The real story that is emerging, and which may actually pose a threat to Blackburn’s ambitions, comes from upper East Tennessee where Independent David Hatley is creating a lot of buzz. He’s already put $7 million into his campaign and has reportedly told supporters he plans to spend $20 million. He doesn’t take individual contributions or special interest pac money. He has a lot of energy, a great backstory and is already running an extremely well oiled and professional campaign.
Again, “but wait, there’s more!” A review of Haley’s campaign expenditures reveals a relatively small (about $45,000) payment to LA based conservative media, consulting and polling firm MadisonMcQueen.
Why is that relevant? They were the media and consulting firm that made Spencer Pratt a national phenomenon in his race for Mayor of Los Angeles. Despite falling short of making the runoff in the deeply blue “woke” LA race, the creativity of his ads definitely touched a nerve with voters unaccustomed to even considering voting for a Republican, and the AI generated ads may foreshadow the future of politics. The Spencer Pratt “Batman ad” went viral with millions of views.
Although it was actually one of many online videos created outside the official campaign, it could be a strategy used by Hatley’s team.
Will Hatley and his creative media team (and allies) employ the same tactics here in the Volunteer State? That kind of creativity, combined with a $20 million warchest, could definitely give Marsha and her own consultant Ward Baker pause for concern, whether they admit it or not.
Hatley is telling supporters he will be on air “soon” and all the way to November 3. Stay tuned, the ads and online memes and videos should definitely be worth watching, even if they have to comply with Tennessee’s new legislation requiring a disclaimer if AI is used.
Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.
