By Jeremy Durham, Sports Columnist
Season record: College 15-12-2 (including the Vols) · Vols against the spread 4-2
I’ve been reading the Tennessee message boards all week, and y’all are scared to death.
Any lifelong Vols fan can feel a loss coming. That’s the mood. Folks are already blaming the refs for a game that hasn’t kicked off. Some of you are still mad about 2016, when Butch Jones kicked the extra point instead of going for two in College Station and we lost in double overtime.
And the betting numbers aren’t helping. Roughly 85 to 90 percent of the public money is on Tennessee, and the line hasn’t budged off 2.5. Vols fans are smart to be wary of that. When the public hammers a team and Vegas won’t move the number, that’s usually a warning.
Normally, I’m the guy fading the public. Not on this game. Even Five and a Fade doesn’t fade everything.
Fading the public works best when the public is chasing a name. This week, the public is actually correct, and let’s be honest about why.
Start with South Carolina, because that’s what everybody’s really worried about. Yes, we lost in Columbia. But look at how. Twelve penalties. Three touchdowns wiped off the board. We were up 24-17 late and still found a way to lose on a walk-off field goal. South Carolina didn’t beat us. We beat ourselves.
And here’s the part nobody’s talking about. We scored 24 points in that stadium while tripping over our own feet. Texas A&M went to the same place last week and scored nine. Three field goals. No touchdowns.
So spare me the idea that A&M is a scary team here and that they’re playing so much better lately. The Aggies have scored 35 points in their last three SEC games combined. Six at No. 22 Missouri. Twenty at No. 3 Alabama. Nine at No. 17 South Carolina. That’s not a slump. That’s who they are.
Now they get Jim Knowles. No. 8 Tennessee has the best defense in this conference, and I’m not sure it’s close. We just held then-No. 6 Kentucky to a season-low six points in a 34-6 beatdown. Eight tackles for loss. Three forced turnovers, against a team that came in with one of the best turnover margins in the country.
And don’t tell me this team can’t win on the road. People still say we got lucky in Fayetteville. We won by a touchdown, in George MacIntyre’s first career start, for our first win there since 2001. Yes, the third quarter was ugly. But much of that was about building depth, with many reserves out there not making plays. When it counted, we did what we’ve done to everybody this year. We wore them down. DeSean Bishop ripped off a 59-yard run to set up the go-ahead score and punched it in himself with under two minutes left.
That’s this team. It doesn’t always look pretty. But it finishes.
That depth matters this week. Losing Daune Morris to a car wreck is awful, and thank God it wasn’t worse. Nic Moore is out sick, so Sham Umarov starts at left guard. Tyree Weathersby is done for the year. Those reserves who took their lumps in Fayetteville are exactly why this team can absorb it.
A&M can stop the run, and it plays a lot of man coverage, so we’ll have to beat them on crossing routes. That means MacIntyre making some throws, especially to Mike Matthews. But we don’t need 40. We need 21 and no dumb penalties. Bishop will handle the fourth quarter. He usually does.
One wild card. A&M hasn’t played a meaningful home game in over a month. That could mean a rusty team, or it could mean a crowd that’s been waiting and comes out loud. That’s why the first quarter is everything. Score first, and Kyle Field remembers its team is 4-5 and out of the playoff hunt.
Vols fans can feel it coming. They’re right. They just have the wrong team.
The pick: Tennessee -2.5. Vols 23, Aggies 13.
And if you’re riding with me on the Five and a Fade card, the Under 43.5 is my favorite play of the weekend. Knowles against that A&M offense? Sign me up.
Go Vols.
