The Hokey Pokey of candidates getting in and out of the special election for Congress in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is over. The GOP primary field is now set, with the election scheduled for October 7. Early voting begins in mid-September.

Eleven republicans are set to be on the ballot following submission and approval of the required signatures to qualify. Most political analysts believe that the winner of the primary could receive as few as 23% of the votes due to the large number of candidates splitting the votes. Tennessee doesn’t have a runoff process if no candidate in a primary or General election receives more than 50% of the vote. Thus, the  Republican nominee in this race could have the support of less than 75% of the primary voters. 

Despite expected low turnout for the December 2 general election, Republicans are heavy favorites to retain the seat vacated by the resignation of Congressman Mark Green. Green defeated Democrat and former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry by 22 points last November.

Several GOP political commentators believe that the margin separating the top few candidates in the primary could be as little as a thousand votes. At this point, four candidates appear to be separating themselves from the field due to their name recognition, current political officeholding, and fundraising ability. Jody Barrett, Gino Bulso, Lee Reeves, and Matt Van Epps appear to have the best chance to win the primary election, according to most observers in the district. Those four have consistently performed best in recent straw polls conducted at GOP events over the past few weeks.

Steve Gill is Publisher of TriStar Daily.