Look for the final days in the special election for Congress in the 7th district to resemble the last laps at Bristol Motor Speedway, where “rubbin’ is racin’!” While the campaigns trade blows, outside groups are dumping millions into the fray. It is the only race in the country, so it is also receiving outsized national media attention. Aftyn Behn’s video showing disdain for Nashville is a self-inflicted wound that is being exploited by Matt Van Epps’ team. Behn’s tortured apology and babbling attempt to explain her past statements on liberal national media have not helped her. 

Ultimately, the race depends not on policy positions, credentials, or candidate missteps. It all comes down to turnout. Early voting ends Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. And election day is December 2.

Early votes cast through the weekend totaled 54,822. According to officials, 13,650 of those have come from the Democratic stronghold of Davidson County. Through most of early voting Davidson County has accounted for about 25% of the total votes. Some of the other 13 counties have now raised their numbers, slightly lowering that percentage.

Montgomery County (Clarksville) is expected to perform well for Republicans, as Van Epps and has produced 13,396 votes so far. The county has roughly tracked with Davidson from the beginning and continues to do so.

Republicans in Williamson County have increased their turnout pace slightly since a satellite voting location was opened in Fairview late last week. 8,941 votes have now been cast there.

Bottom line? If the conservative voters and Pro-Trump MAGA population that gave Trump a 20+ margin in the district last November show up and vote, then the district will stay in Republican hands.

HUMBLE EXITS FROM CONTENTIOUS STATE SENATE REMATCH
Republican Gary Humble announced this week that he will not continue with his campaign against State Senator Jack Johnson. The surprising announcement has some of Humble’s conservative supporters scrambling to find a suitable replacement to challenge Johnson. Johnson narrowly defeated Humble four years ago, but has taken strides to strengthen his position for the second round. He will be a strong fa to retain his seat, regardless of who challenges him in the Republican primary in August.

Humble opting out could impact other political races next August. His absence from the ballot could leave his conservative, grassroots supporters less motivated to vote. That could impact conservative Congressman Andy Ogles’ primary race against the more moderate former Tennessee agriculture commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Conservatives Cong. John Rose and perhaps state rep. Monty Fritts could also see some slippage in votes against Senator Marsha Blackburn in the governor’s race. Johnson’s donors and endorsements have largely aligned with Hatcher and Blackburn In heavily Republican Williamson County.

PEACE ABOUNDS AMONG SOME HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING

Republican House Speaker Cameron Sexton had some kind words for the Nashville’s democrat mayor Freddie O’Connell‘s handling of negotiations concerning the relocation of the Tennessee performing arts center. And President Donald Trump welcomed Communist New York City mayor elect Zohran Mamdani to the White House, where they exchanged pleasantries. Signs of the Apocalypse or just a brief political glitch knowing Santa is down to refining his naughty and nice list?

Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily. Happy Thanksgiving to all!