Should a conspicuous lack of enthusiasm among many Tennessee Republicans during primary season raise alarm bells for the GOP? Will a lethargic approach to November combined with divisions within the party lead to losses in state and federal raises that reflect the gains Democrats made in many local offices in August? Is a potential perfect storm brewing this Fall?
First, it is well established that Trump voters tend to stay home in elections that do not include his name on the ballot. And MAGA voters who were less than enthusiastic about Marsha Blackburn in August, voting in large numbers for Rose and Fritts, may not be more supportive in November.
Trump has now endorsed her, but will it motivate turnout? And in a rare stumble, the Trump endorsement failed to secure an Andy Ogles win in his contested primary. In the absence of a targeted and well funded GOTV (get out the vote) effort by the state party there could be troubles ahead.
Keep in mind that Democrats Chaz Molder and Justin Pearson have plenty of money to make noise and generate enthusiasm among the Democrats’ base that may have an impact. Though they are both likely to fall short in their races, they could pull some lower ballot Dems to victory in state races if turnout is low.
The gains that Democrats made in school board and county commission races across the state should also concern Republicans. Many of the successful Dems may not be DSA level crazy whackos, but many ARE definitely on the fringes and way out of step with typical Tennessee “red state” voting patterns and values. Knox, Hamilton and Rutherford counties all registered significant leftward shifts in local races that seem to signal a disturbing trend as focus moves to November. Will Republicans act aggressively to stem a gently rising blue tide?
Issues and national polling should also trouble Tennessee Republicans. The party in the White House always loses ground in midterm elections. Trump’s popularity is less than it was two years ago. Dems and their media lackeys will hammer on “affordability” (something that did not concern them during the Biden years when things were much worse) despite some positive economic indicators. Voters will react to how they “feel” and “fear” about the economy more than what the facts may reveal. Gas prices affect everything, and there are big well lit signs on every street corner constantly reminding every driver of the exact price of gas down to the penny. Whether or not, and if so “when”, those prices drop will definitely factor into GOP fortunes in the midterms.
Finally, the divisions within the Republican Party in Tennessee are a serious problem. While they pale in comparison to the divide Dems face with their establishment wing in a brutal battle with the rising stars from DSA world, there are still fractures within the Tennessee GOP that hamper developing a unified front heading into the general election. Some is the hangover from bitter primary battles that became more deeply personal (spurred on by the postings of supporters rather than the campaigns themselves in many cases) than a disagreement over substantive policy issues. Those wounds will not heal easily, and it will take more than kumbaya statements by the victors to repair the damage.
The deeper problem lies in the internal splits within many county party organizations. The primary fights reflected these divisions in many cases, and were exacerbated by the dark money injected by out of state special interests. Those sharp divisions show no signs of being cured any time soon, and many have already festered for several years.
Is it all doom and gloom for Tennessee Republicans? Not at all. Blackburn defeated a better known, better funded, and more credentialed Democrat nominee for Senate in Phil Bredesen by double digits 8 years ago. Their nominee this year has none of the advantages Bredesen possessed. The Democratic Party in Tennessee is not significantly stronger now, and will be dragged down by their national party political chaos. She is still the heavy favorite to win, along with the essentially unopposed Senator Bill Hagerty, which should help in races across the board.
But for this election season, and looking forward, Republicans in Tennessee should address structural, personality, funding and policy issues sooner rather than later. Otherwise the political landscape may be more “thorny” than the bed of roses they have come to expect.
Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.
