On last week’s Nashville in Focus, our panel talked about the fact we hadn’t seen a new poll in the governor’s race in a month. Within days of that conversation, I got new polling information from each of the major party candidates for governor.
The Spry poll shared by Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn shows her with 43.5% of the vote, leading Democrat Jerri Green by 11-points. That poll shows Independent Dave Hatley, the Johnson City businessman, with 11 percent.
The poll from Jerri Green tells a much different story. It shows Blackburn holding on to a 2-point lead, 36% to Green’s 34%. It shows Hatley with 20 percent and fellow Independent Lauren Pinkston with less than 2 percent of the vote.
Which of these polls should you trust if either? That’s the question.
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Things to consider, the Spry poll is based on 637 likely Tennessee voters. It’s a small number to predict how millions of registered voters might go, however, we have seen even smaller polls in some of the congressional races.
Longtime Republican commentator Steve Gill says there was a telling stat buried in Spry poll that’s worth noting. Let’s call it a “forced vote” tally.
“In the if you had to vote ‘ numbers today in Marsha’s own poll, it was like 23 (Blackburn), 20 (Green) and 19 (Hately). So even her own poll shows some tremendous weakness. And when you look at the unfavorable for Marsha Blackburn in her poll, remarkably high unfavorable, particularly among women,” Gill said on Sunday’s episode of Nashville in Focus.
