Republicans in Tennessee currently have supermajorities in the State House and Senate heading into this year’s election season. One-half of the Senate seats and all House seats are up for grabs this November, although many will actually be decided in August primaries, where the primary winner will be unopposed in the Fall. In several other cases, incumbents are not facing any challengers in the primary or general election. Thus, the political composition of the Legislature is unlikely to change much, if at all.
Nevertheless, Republican lawmakers who redrew congressional lines in a contentious special session in May seem poised to turn their focus to legislative maps and expanding their majority when they gavel in a new legislative session in January.
A spokesperson for Tennessee Senate Republicans has indicated that lawmakers are likely to “consider legislation related to redrawing Tennessee House of Representatives and Tennessee Senate districts next legislative session.
“Given the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, I would expect the next General Assembly to consider legislation related to continued redistricting efforts for Tennessee’s State Senate and House district maps,” according to Tennessee Senate Republican Caucus press secretary Molly Crawford.
Crawford noted that she expects redistricting legislation to be filed and that it would then proceed through the normal committee process.
The House seems less likely to take any similar action. House Speaker Cameron Sexton says that while he would consider looking at the House redrawing lines if Caucus members raise the issue, there are some complications. Based upon the dramatic population growth in some areas of the state since the last census in 2020, particularly in the counties surrounding Nashville, he pointed out that they would be dealing with “old data.” And any change in one district, such as the 80th in West Tennessee, would have an impact on others. While it is possible the House could consider getting engaged in a redistricting effort, it doesn’t appear to be a priority for the Speaker at this point.
It is not clear which seats in the Tennessee General Assembly could be targeted for changes, although any change in the current map will have a domino effect requiring changes in several districts. The Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which prompted a rush of redistricting moves regarding congressional districts across the country, also applies to state legislative districts. The Court ruled that legislative boundaries drawn on the basis of race are unconstitutional, though population numbers and political interests may motivate how lines are drawn.
At least one Tennessee House district fits the parameters of the Court’s decision outlawing districts intended to carve out lines based on racial preferences. House District 80, a West Tennessee seat held by Democrat Rep. Johnny Shaw, is a majority-minority district created in response to a lawsuit brought under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the statute at issue in the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais. As the Speaker noted, any change in that district would require additional changes across the board.
Senate District 19 in Nashville, held by Democratic Sen. Charlane Oliver, is also a majority-minority district. While not created by a lawsuit, Oliver’s district may also be at risk of being redrawn based on its design being primarily based on race.
Republicans currently hold 75 of 99 seats in the Tennessee House of Representatives, or 76%. The GOP holds 27 of 33 seats in the Tennessee Senate, or 82%.
The Supreme Court ruling in Callais also gives legislatures more latitude when redrawing lines to comply with the Constitution. Under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, challengers now have to prove legislators had a racially discriminatory intent when redrawing district maps, not just that the maps have a racially discriminatory result.
If the House WAS to consider redrawing a few lines they could presumably focus on a county like Davidson, or Shelby, where the district lines are already contained within one county and wouldn’t require shifting lines across a broader geographic reach. In that case, Republicans could shift the boundary lines and possibly pit two Democrats against each other while creating a winnable seat in “blue” Nashville. Could they put Justin Jones and Aftyn Behn in the same district, for example? Together again but still at odds? Anything is possible.
Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.
