By: Jeremy Durham, Contributing Sports Editor
Five NFL games I like, one where the crowd is wrong, and a running record so you can hold me to it. We always start with the Titans.
1. Titans at Colts, UNDER 44
I’m not going to tell you to bet on this Titans team. They’re 0-5, they lost 26-3 at home to a Houston team that came in winless, and they’re last in the NFL in points and total yards. I’m also not going to lay a touchdown with a Colts offense that managed one touchdown and five field goals in a loss at Pittsburgh. So I’ll bet on what I know: one offense can’t score, and the other keeps settling for three. Under. But likely another “walk of shame” for the Titans.
2. Broncos +2.5 vs. Seahawks (Thursday)
Seattle is on a short week, traveling to Denver, and is 1-3-1 against the spread this year. Denver is 3-2 at home and getting points. The early money at the window is already coming in on the home underdog, and I’m with it. Give me the Broncos in the thin air on Thursday night.
3. Jaguars -2.5 vs. Texans (London)
Houston just beat the Titans, which tells you about as much as you’d guess. The Texans are still 1-4 and 1-4 against the spread, and they’re likely without running back David Montgomery (groin). Jacksonville is 4-1 and “hosts” this one in London. Under a field goal, I’ll take the better team.
4. Steelers -2.5 at Buccaneers
Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-22 win over the Colts. Tampa Bay came into last week winless and hadn’t covered a spread in 13 straight games, with a rookie quarterback filling in for an injured Baker Mayfield. If Mayfield’s thumb keeps him out again, this line is too short.
5. Giants +1.5 vs. Saints
This line opened with New York favored and has flipped to New Orleans. That makes no sense to me. The Giants are 3-1-1 and 4-1 against the spread, even after losing Jaxson Dart for the season. The Saints are 1-4. Getting points at home with the better team is a gift. Take it.
The Fade: Bears -3.5 at Falcons
The public loves Chicago again, and the early money is on the Bears. But Caleb Williams has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury, and his backup threw two interceptions last week. If Williams can’t go, Chicago is laying more than a field goal on the road with a backup quarterback. Fade the crowd. Falcons +3.5.
Five and a Fade (NFL) record:0-0 (debut) Lines as of October 14.
College record: 0-0 (picks pending Saturday)
Vols ATS: 2-1
