By: Jeremy Durham, Contributing Sports Editor
Five college games I like, one where the crowd is wrong, and a running record so you can hold me to it. The Vols get their own column, so they’re not on this list.
This week I’m taking the points almost everywhere. That’s not a strategy, it’s just where the value is after a weekend that blew up the Top 25.
1. Mississippi State +10.5 at LSU
LSU lost to Kentucky and fell 12 spots to No. 22. Mississippi State is 4-1 and ranked No. 16. Now the reeling team is laying double digits to the ranked one? Death Valley is loud, but it’s not worth 10.5 points to a team that just got pushed around by Kentucky. I’ll take State.
2. Kentucky +6.5 at Oklahoma
Oklahoma just beat Texas in the Red River Showdown. That’s the emotional high of the season, and the classic letdown spot comes the very next week. Kentucky is coming off its own statement win over LSU and has climbed to No. 15. With a 42.5 total, the lowest of the big games, every point matters. Give me the Cats and the touchdown.
3. Indiana +3.5 vs. Ohio State
Indiana has won 22 straight games. Twenty-two. The Hoosiers are 6-0, ranked No. 5, at home, and still getting points against Ohio State. At some point you stop asking whether Indiana is for real. I’ll take the home underdog that hasn’t lost in almost two years.
4. BYU +12.5 vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 6-0 and No. 2, and I respect it. But BYU is 5-0, ranked No. 8, and playing in Provo at night. Twelve and a half points is a lot to lay on the road against an unbeaten team. Notre Dame probably wins. I’m just not sure it wins by two touchdowns.
5. Arkansas +6.5 at Vanderbilt
This one’s local. I watched Arkansas take a second-half lead on Tennessee on Saturday before the Vols came back to win by seven. Yes, the Hogs have lost 14 straight SEC games. But that team isn’t as bad as the record, and Vandy hasn’t earned the right to lay nearly a touchdown against an SEC team that just took a top-15 team to the wire.
The Fade: Georgia -18.5 vs. Auburn
Everybody’s going to bet the new No. 1. Georgia just beat Alabama, jumped to the top of the poll, and gets a three-touchdown line against Auburn at home. That’s exactly the setup I want to bet against. It’s a rivalry game the week after the biggest win of Georgia’s season, and Auburn only lost by 10 at Neyland two weeks ago. Georgia wins. Covering 18.5 is a different question. Auburn +18.5.
*Lines as of Monday October 12.
College record: 0-0 (debut)
Vols ATS: 2-1
Jeremy Durham is Contributing Sports Editor for TriStar Daily.
