Five and a Fade, College Edition: Last Week Chaos and Carnage Was the Rule

Five college games I like, one where the crowd is wrong, and a running record so you can hold me to it.

First, the receipts. Last week I went 4-2. BYU beat No. 2 Notre Dame outright. Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia outright. Kentucky won at Oklahoma, and Arkansas won at Vanderbilt. Throw in the Vols, and that’s five underdogs I backed winning outright on one Saturday. My misses: Mississippi State (without their star quarterback) got shut out at LSU, and Indiana lost 19-15 to Ohio State.

This week’s theme is simple. Last week lies. The market always overreacts to Saturday, and I’m betting it did again.

The Vols get their own column, so here’s the short version: Tennessee +2.5 at South Carolina and the Tennessee moneyline (+112) at South Carolina.

1. Michigan +7 vs. Indiana
Indiana burned me last week, so I’m going the other way. The Hoosiers just lost for the first time in 23 games, and now they go to the Big House, where Indiana hasn’t won since 1967. Michigan is turning to backup quarterback Tommy Carr, who gave the offense a spark against Penn State. The total has dropped 11 points since it opened, all the way to 41.5. In a game that low, a touchdown is a lot of points. I’ll take them.

2. Kentucky -11.5 vs. Vanderbilt
I backed Kentucky last week and the Cats won at Oklahoma to grab a share of the SEC lead. I backed Arkansas against Vanderbilt and the Hogs won in Nashville. Same two horses. Kentucky is 6-1. Vanderbilt is 3-4, has lost four straight, and just lost at home to an Arkansas team that had dropped 14 straight SEC games. Lay it.

3. Oklahoma -3.5 at Mississippi State
I called Mississippi State a team that’s falling apart in my Vols column, so I’m not about to turn around and take the points. The Bulldogs lost 56-23 at home to Alabama, then got shut out 31-0 at LSU with their starting quarterback and running back hurt. Oklahoma’s offense isn’t pretty, but it doesn’t have to be against a team going the wrong way. If Kamario Taylor plays, it gets tighter. I still like the Sooners.

4. Houston +6.5 at Utah
A ranked team getting almost a touchdown. Utah is unbeaten and good, and Salt Lake at night is no picnic. But Houston just beat Oklahoma State behind five touchdown passes from Conner Weigman. Utah needs style points before it plays BYU. I think Houston keeps this one inside a touchdown.

5. Texas Tech -10.5 at Cincinnati
Texas Tech is unbeaten and has covered three straight. Cincinnati has lost two straight. Sometimes the better team is just the better team.

The Fade: LSU -7.5 at Auburn
Everybody saw LSU 31, Mississippi State 0, and the line jumped a full point. Look closer. Mississippi State played that game without its starting quarterback and running back. The week before, LSU lost at Kentucky. Now LSU goes to Jordan-Hare to play an Auburn team that just beat the No. 1 team in the country. I took Auburn last week, and I’m not getting off now. Fade the crowd. Auburn +7.5.

College record: 4-2 (5-2 counting the Vols)
Vols ATS: 3-1

All lines as of October 20. 

Jeremy Durham is a sports columnist for TriStar Daily