With the end of early voting in the special election for the seventh congressional district looming on Thursday, turnout in early voting continues to remain incredibly anemic. Through the last weekend of early voting, only 11,179 votes had been cast in the Republican primary; 9,795 votes had been cast in the Democratic primary. Polls in both primaries continue to show “undecided” in a clear majority, meaning that many voters will decide who to support at the last minute or choose not to vote at all.
Most political observers expect each primary to be decided with less than 35,000 total votes cast. For the Republicans, with 11 candidates dividing the vote, the nominee could prevail with his view as 7-8000 votes. For the Democrats, with four candidates, 11,000 votes may be the magic number.
In the Republican primary, attack ads are flying fast and furious, with Jody Barrett and Matt Van Epps being the primary targets. Voters often claim to despise attack ads, but candidates use them for one reason: they work. Usually, however, they also tend to shift votes away from those who are attacking and being attacked, and in an 11-candidate race, it is impossible to predict where they will move. Several of the quieter candidates are hoping to be the “Bill Lee“ of this campaign. As Randy Boyd and Diane Black viciously blasted each other on the airwaves, Bill Lee slipped up the middle and won the GOP primary for Governor in 2018. At this point, Gino Bulso may be best poised to be the beneficiary of the harsh counterattacks since he has more name recognition and a “cleaner uniform” than most of the field.
Moneywise, who can change the dynamic in the remaining days until October 7? While out-of-state PACs are spending millions, candidates with cash on hand may have a chance to make late moves down the final stretch.
Representatives Lee Reeves and Gino Bulso have the most cash on hand, with over half a million dollars at each in their coffers, according to the most recent FEC reports.
Reeves has $550,000 in cash on hand, about half of which comes from donors, while Bulso has about the same amount, with most of it self-funded. Barrett has $235,000, and Van Epps has $360,000 remaining.
On the Democrat side of the aisle, Darden Copeland, with $435,000 cash on hand, has the resources advantage to make a lot of noise in the remaining days. No other Democrat is within reach to match his potential spending over the next week.
Several Republican strategists have expressed concern that Copeland may be the biggest threat to Republicans maintaining this seat in the red column. He is the more moderate/centrist candidate on the Democratic side of the aisle, and a bitterly divisive Republican primary could make him an unattractive alternative for some voters. The general election date of Dec. 2, just a few days after Fall break for many schools in the district, combined with early voting falling during Thanksgiving week, may create a low turnout perfect storm that would benefit the Democrats. Depending on the primary results, national Democrats could pour a lot of money into this race as they try to “steal” a seat before the midterm elections.
Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.
