Bama Week, Part 2: Too Many Points at Neyland

By: Jeremy Durham, Contributing Sports Editor

Let’s start with last week, because I said I’d own it.

I said Tennessee would win in Fayetteville for the first time since 2001. It did. I also said the Vols would cover 13.5. They won by seven. I’m 2-1 against the spread, and the one that got away was me getting greedy.

This week, I’m taking the points.

Alabama is limping into Knoxville

Alabama opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and money pushed it to 8.5 by midweek. Then the injury news came out, and it’s back down to 7.5. The total has dropped five points. The market is figuring out what I already thought: this isn’t the Alabama team that hung 45 or more on everybody before Georgia.

Start with Ryan Coleman-Williams. He has 23 catches for 415 yards and four touchdowns, and he isn’t playing. Without him, Alabama doesn’t have a receiver who scares you.

Then there’s the injury nobody’s talking about. Starting center Racin Delgatty hurt his leg late against Georgia and is doubtful. If he can’t go, Alabama will probably start sophomore Mal Waldrep, who has played 150 snaps this year, all at guard. His first career start at center would come in front of 101,915 people screaming at him. It also adds a new body at guard.

Speaking of which

Xavier Gilliam has 10 tackles for loss through six games. Since 2001, only Jesse Mahelona has had more at this point of a season. Derek Barnett had fewer at this point, and he went in the first round. The national media has noticed, too. ESPN’s Cole Cubelic went as far as calling him the best defensive player in college football this week. Tennessee has given up 20 to Texas, 14 to Auburn and 17 to Arkansas.

But Gilliam can’t do it alone, and he won’t be out there every snap. Tennessee rotates up front, and when the starters came off the field in the third quarter at Arkansas, the younger guys didn’t hold up. That can’t happen Saturday. A center making his first start is a gift, but only if whoever’s lined up across from him on that snap takes advantage of it. When Gilliam’s on the sideline catching his breath, the depth has to play like starters.

If they do, Alabama’s offensive line is going to have a long afternoon. And remember what I said Monday: the home team has won four straight in this series.

The quarterback question is answered

George MacIntyre is starting. Faizon Brandon got some first-team work this week, but the vast majority of the reps went to MacIntyre. That’s the right call. Brandon is still working his way back from the shoulder, and this isn’t the game to find out whether it holds up.

What worries me now is turnovers. MacIntyre gave it away three times in Fayetteville and still won, which says something good about the kid and the team around him. But that won’t work against Alabama. If he takes care of the ball and lets DeSean Bishop, Jackson Ross and the defense do the heavy lifting, Tennessee is in this game to the end.

Who’s watching

This might be the biggest recruiting weekend of the season, and yes, I’d put it ahead of Texas. Rivals has Tennessee hosting one of its best crowds of the year: 2028 quarterback commit Kaden Craft, plus commits to Ole Miss, Florida and South Carolina that the Vols would love to flip.

The two that matter most live up the road. Jermaine Cobbins from Springfield is the top junior in the state. Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Michigan and Oregon have all offered, and Ohio State was supposed to be the team to beat. Maddox Porter from Battle Ground Academy is the state’s top 2029 prospect and the No. 1 receiver in the country in his class. As a freshman, he caught 27 touchdown passes. Saturday is his first gameday at Neyland.

Beat Alabama in front of those two, and it pays off for years.

The pick

I don’t know that Tennessee wins this game. Alabama is still Alabama, and it’s coming in mad after getting robbed in Tuscaloosa.

What I do know is that a team missing its best receiver and its starting center shouldn’t be laying more than a touchdown at Neyland. The number came down for a reason, and I still don’t think it’s down far enough.

Tennessee +7.5. Alabama 24, Tennessee 21. And if the Vols win outright, I’ll be the first one buying cigars.

Line as of Friday. Season record ATS: 2-1

Jeremy Durham is contributing sports editor for TriStar Daily.