Vanderbilt University is out with another of its notoriously inaccurate political polls. Although consistently embraced by media across the state as offering credible information, the track record of their polling reveals both poor processes and even worse political relevance.
Let’s flash back to mid-October 2018, when the Republican House Member Marsha Blackburn was facing off against former Democrat Governor Phil Bredesen for the US Senate seat she still holds. Bredesen came into the race with high name recognition, plenty of funding and a reputation for moderation. Vanderbilt produced a poll breathlessly announcing that Bredesen held a one-point lead in the race, which the sycophant mainstream media reported with equal breathless celebration.
Just a few weeks later, Marsha dusted him off by 11 points, 55-44%! Meanwhile, Republican Bill Lee clobbered former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean by 21 points, 60-39% in the Governor’s. Vanderbilt had pegged Lee’s lead at 11 points before the real results came in!
With a consistent 11+ point error rate, it is amazing that anyone gives the Vanderbilt poll any shred of credibility. But here they are, out with a new poll that is generating media headlines across the state.
There are several problems with the poll, starting with the fact that their own website does not include a top-line breakdown of demographics, party preferences, geographic divisions, and other important details regarding how the poll was constructed. Credible polls don’t bury the info that can reveal biases built into how the numbers are collected.
The poll claims to provide data revealing distinctions in opinions by MAGA Republicans (what percentage did Vanderbilt believe are MAGA Republicans versus general Republicans in Tennessee?) Democrats and independents. With a total survey of only 1,203 respondents, the narrow numbers in each category raise serious doubts about accuracy!
Second, Vanderbilt always polls registered voters rather than likely voters. Based upon the consistently low voter turnout in Tennessee elections, LIKELY voter opinions, based upon their actual frequent voting patterns rather than their claims to always vote (yep, voters asked about how often they vote almost always overstate their participation to appear more civic-minded), give a much more accurate assessment of public opinion as relates to elections.
But one of the most glaring examples of why this poll should be tossed into the trash immediately lies in the media reporting and assessment of their own polling team. Reporting on the poll across the state references the results based upon the responses of “registered Republicans” and even “registered Independents.”
Really!?!? Tennessee does have registration by political party. There are no registered Republicans. There are no registered Democrats, and there certainly are no registered independents. There’s party registration in several other states. But not in Tennessee.
And it is not just a matter of poor reporting by media outlets, who may not understand the difference between registered voters and registered by party, but Vanderbilt’s own press release refers to registered independents! Reporters may not know the difference, but certainly the political science experts at Vanderbilt would be expected to know the distinction. Or maybe not!
As usual, it seems to be a poll determined to generate clicks rather than provide accurate or relevant information. And as usual, mission accomplished.
