A new Americans For Prosperity/WTN poll, conducted by Spry Strategies, finds the Republican special election primary race for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District extremely close, with the top four candidates separated by just one percentage point and all of them within the poll’s margin of error. Most Republican analysts have said that the race will ultimately have a very tiny separation between the first and fourth place candidates, with perhaps 23% or less earning a win in a crowded field of 11 candidates.
AFP Foundation Tennessee State Deputy Director Michael Lofti noted the poll results indicate that “the state of the race is wide open and essentially tied” among the leading Republican contenders.
The poll methodology included a random sample of 500 likely special election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The results were weighted.
Three Republican state representatives have emerged as slight frontrunners based on the polling: Lee Reeves of Franklin, Gino Bulso of Brentwood, and Jody Barrett of Dickson. Matt Van Epps is the fourth front-running candidate, who formerly served in the Bill Lee administration.
As most candidates are just initiating their advertising campaigns, it is not surprising that 57% of those polled were undecided at this point. However, some candidates, like Lee Reeves, have already pushed out at least six mail pieces in the early stages of the campaign.
Early voting in the GOP primary begins September 17, with the election day set for October 7. The general election is set for December 2.
Jody Barrett seized on his slight lead in the poll at 10.1% as an indication of his momentum in the race.
“This poll confirms what we’re hearing every day across the district: patriotic Tennesseans want a proven conservative fighter who will stand with President Trump and won’t bend to the political establishment,” Barrett said. “I’ve taken that fight to Nashville, and now I’m ready to take it to Washington. The choice is simple: more weak Republicans who cave to the swamp, or a fighter who will defend our values and put Tennessee first.”
While Barrett had a tiny edge in the initial poll question, the “forced” poll question – asking voters if they HAD to choose between the candidates – revealed a lead by Lee Reeves (20.9%) and Gino Bulso (19%) over the field of 11. In the “forced” decision poll question, Barrett (14.8%) fell to fourth place behind Van Epps (15.4%).
Bulso embraced the results. “From day one, this campaign has been about giving voters in the 7th District a proven conservative they can trust to defend President Trump’s agenda and fight for Tennessee values,” Gino said. “I am deeply grateful to every supporter who has joined our cause, and this poll shows our momentum is real.”
The 7th District is made up of portions of Davidson, Williamson, and Montgomery counties, as well as 11 other counties in Middle and West Tennessee. It’s considered heavily favorable to the eventual Republican nominee. President Donald Trump won the district in 2024 by 22.3%. However, Democrats are hopeful that the likely low voter turnout on December 2 may give them an opportunity to pull an upset.
Steve Gill is the Publisher of TriStar Daily.
