Rutherford County is on the verge of passing Hamilton County as Tennessee’s fourth-most populous county within the next five years, according to a state analysis.
A 2024 analysis from the Boyd Center at the University of Tennessee had projected Rutherford County would surpass Hamilton County’s population by this month, based on population numbers released by the census in 2022.
New population estimates from 2024 show Hamilton County has surpassed the center’s projected population growth while Rutherford County has underperformed in actual growth. However, the delay in Rutherford County passing Hamilton County appears to be only temporary. Right now there’s about a 10,000-person difference between the two counties, which Rutherford County is projected to overcome by 2030.
Tennessee saw a historic number of new residents in 2022, adding around 81,300 more people than it lost. In 2023, 90 of Tennessee’s 95 counties grew, according to the Boyd Center. In the previous decade, 65 counties added to their net population.
Rutherford County, home to Murfreesboro and Middle Tennessee State University, was the state’s fastest-growing county from 2016 to 2022. Now, it ranks second behind Davidson County.
Census Bureau estimates show that Davidson County (Nashville) added the most population in Tennessee in 2024. International migration adjustments were a big factor as it outpaced Rutherford County for the first time since 2015.
Middle Tennessee was definitely a hotspot in Tennessee for population growth overall. Rutherford County’s 7,347-person increase was followed by two other counties in the region. Montgomery County added 5,627 new residents and Wilson County netted an additional 5,596. The 3.4 percent increase in Wilson County was the second fastest one-year change in the state last year, and it is Tennessee’s fastest-growing county for the decade, adding 15 percent to its population since 2020.
Summer, Williamson and Maury counties also saw significant one year gains in population.
East Tennessee also saw some good population gains, with Knox County adding 5,172 people and Hamilton County adding 4,984 people.
Meanwhile, Shelby County (Memphis) led the nation numeric population decline, with a net loss of 3379 in 2024. Memphis just narrowly finished ahead of St. Louis in net population loss last year. Shelby County was one of six counties in West Tennessee that lost population in 2024 and was among 11 statewide that reported declines. It stands out from a group of largely smaller rural Tennessee counties that reported much more modest population losses and from its larger urban counterparts in Middle and East Tennessee that managed strong gains this decade.
For more details, check out the Tennessee State Data Center at the University of Tennessee. https://tnsdc.utk.edu/
