Let me praise the excellence of Michigan before I tell you why Tennessee wins.
They are not just a one seed on paper. They are 34-3. They are number one on KenPom. They have better wins than us this season, including against an Illinois team that beat us by 13 in December. Their defense has been elite all year. Dusty May has built something genuinely impressive in Ann Arbor and I respect it.
And we are going to beat them Sunday.
Before this tournament started, 7.36 percent of brackets had Tennessee in the Elite Eight. The experts had Iowa State winning Saturday night. Now they are retroactively explaining it away with Jefferson’s injury rather than crediting a Tennessee team that held Iowa State to 39 percent shooting, won by 14 with our own star guard shooting 2-11 from three and committing five turnovers, and got double doubles from two different players in the process.
Good. Keep explaining it away.
Michigan is the hunted. Tennessee is the hunter. We do not do as well as the hunted. We have never done as well with a target on our back as we do when nobody believes in us. The experts will pick Michigan. Vegas will have Michigan favored. Every talking head Sunday morning will explain why the one seed with the dominant frontcourt and the best record in the country beats the six seed from the SEC.
Here is what they will not tell you.
Rick Barnes has already beaten Aday Mara. Felix Okpara has faced him twice and won both times.
Last March, Tennessee beat UCLA 67-58 in the NCAA Tournament second round. Mara was on the floor. Barnes made halftime defensive adjustments that completely shut UCLA down, Tennessee went on a 15-5 run to close the half and never looked back. Okpara had seven rebounds and a block and Tennessee held Mara largely in check through the second half.
And the year before that, when Okpara was at Ohio State, he personally outplayed Mara. Okpara scored 10 points on 5-of-7 shooting in that game and Mara finished with only two points on 1-of-6 from the field. That is Okpara’s personal record against this guy, not Barnes’s record, not Tennessee’s record. Okpara has looked Mara in the eye twice and won twice.
Mara is better now. He is the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, a 7’3 potential NBA lottery pick, and the tallest player in Michigan program history. Okpara is better now as well. This is going to be a battle. Barnes has a file on this young man and his best rim protecter and dunker has beaten him both times they have met.
Rick Barnes also watched the Purdue film.
When Purdue beat Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament final it was not because of superior guard play or three point shooting. They were 4 of 14. It was because two physical bigs ran at them relentlessly, controlled the glass, and wore them down inside. Kaufman Renn and Cluff are good. They are not Okpara and the bullies of our other rotating bigs. Okpara is 6’11 and blocks shots in a way that does not just stop possessions, it psychologically alters how opposing offenses operate for the rest of the game. Estrella is 6’11 and 240 pounds. And then Carey comes off the bench at 6’8 and 267 pounds as a third body to throw at Mara when the other two need rest. Dwayne Brown is a freshman who can guard and who can rebound as well.
You cannot foul out these 4 guys.
The Three Point Defense Proof Is Already In This Tournament
Michigan is genuinely elite at shooting threes. It is not one guy. McKenney, Gayle, Burnett off the bench, Lendeborg, Cadeau creating for others. They went 13 of 27 from three against Alabama last night. That is a real weapon and I am not pretending otherwise.
The only way to stop a team like that is to have multiple guys who can guard at an elite level on the perimeter. Tennessee has exactly that. And we have already shown it twice in this tournament.
Miami of Ohio entered our first round game ranked ninth in the country in three point percentage at 39.2 percent. Their two primary shooters, Eian Elmer and Brant Byers, shot 42.9 and 39.2 percent from three on the season respectively. Tennessee held Elmer to zero for seven and Byers to one for six. Miami shot 7 of 29 from three against us. 24.1 percent. From a team shooting 39 percent all year.
Then Virginia came in averaging a top 40 three point attempt rate in the country with willing shooters at every position. Bishop Boswell said before the game they put up around 30 threes a game. Against Tennessee’s defense they finished well below their season average and we won by seven.
When Tennessee locks in on the perimeter it is not one player doing it. It is Boswell, Gillespie, Evans, Ament, and Estrella all buying into a system that takes away the three point line as a viable weapon.
Michigan is going to get some. They are too good not to. But getting some against Tennessee and getting the volume that fuels their offense are two very different things.
Look at last night against Iowa State. Tennessee put 43 rebounds on the board against a two seed. Okpara had 10. Carey had 10 off the bench in 22 minutes. Ament, Estrella, Boswell, Evans, Burg, Brown all contributing. Nobody on this roster has a rebounding number that looks like a traditional beast because everyone crashes the glass every single possession as a matter of identity. Iowa State had 22 rebounds. We had 43. That is not an edge. That is a demolition. And it is exactly the kind of ground game that beat Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament final.
We are deeper. Tennessee played nine meaningful contributors last night. Michigan played seven against Alabama. We are healthy. We have been to three straight Elite Eights. Michigan has not been here since 2021.
And we have the greatest coach in Tennessee basketball history, and it is not close. Three consecutive Elite Eights without a top ten roster budget. Barnes and his staff put together elite scouts. He looked at the Purdue game and he saw a blueprint. And he already knows what Aday Mara looks like when the lights are bright and Tennessee is in his face.
I wrote earlier this season that just as the Lakers lose if both LeBron and Luka have a bad day, Tennessee loses when Gillespie and Ament are off. What are those matchups for this game?
The Matchup Questions That Matter Most
Gillespie vs Cadeau and Gayle
Gillespie’s primary matchup will be Elliot Cadeau at the point, but when Michigan goes to their two guard look Gillespie will be on Roddy Gayle Jr. Gayle is 6’5, athletic, a streaky but dangerous shooter who put up 16 points tonight against Alabama including multiple threes. He is working to become a lockdown defender.
Labaron Philon just scored 35 points against Michigan last night. Thirty five. He tied his career high and played 39 of 40 minutes. He was unstoppable at times, went on personal scoring runs, hit threes, drove to the rim, and made Michigan work every single possession.
Michigan still won by 13.
So what does that tell us about Gillespie? It tells us that a great guard can absolutely go off against this Michigan defense and still not guarantee a win. But it also tells us something else. Philon had to carry Alabama essentially alone. His running mate decided to use his NIL money to buy pounds of pot and was not available for the game.
Burg has finally started to give some good minutes. Bishop Boswell is playing great. Last night Gillespie had 16 points and five turnovers on a rough shooting night and Tennessee still won by 14 because eight other players showed up. If Gillespie plays like Philon did tonight, and he is capable of it, the difference is that Tennessee does not need him to carry it alone. The supporting cast is the variable that separates these two situations entirely.
Note also that Cason, Michigan’s backup guard who would have been a key piece of this puzzle, tore his ACL at Illinois on February 27. He is done for the year. That thins Michigan’s perimeter depth considerably and it is worth watching how May compensates. He was their best 3 point shooter.
His absence also means that Elliot Cadeau cannot get in foul trouble. He played 37 minutes against Saint Louis. He played 34 minutes last night. At UNC and early in his time at Michigan he had a tendency to play overly aggressive defense and get himself in foul trouble. If Tennessee can frustrate him and get him in any kind of foul trouble, he becomes a matador by necessity against a skilled offensive player.
Nate Ament vs Michigan’s Perimeter Defenders
This is the matchup Tennessee fans should be most excited about. Ament at 6’10 playing the three creates a genuine mismatch problem that Michigan has no clean answer for.
If Michigan puts Gayle on him, Ament has four inches on him and can post, face up, and get to his mid-range game at will. If they switch Big Ten player of the year Lendeborg onto him, Lendeborg has to chase a 6’10 forward with legitimate three point range all over the floor, which takes away Lendeborg’s ability to anchor the defense.
Ament averaged over 17 points on the season and has been a projected top five NBA pick at various points this year. He was limited by foul trouble last night but still put up 18 points. Against Michigan’s personnel there is no natural defender for a skilled 6’10 forward who can operate at all three levels. That mismatch, Ament against whoever Michigan assigns to him, could be the most consequential individual battle of the game.
We have beaten opponents with 30, 29, and 29 wins to get here. Nobody believed in us before any of those games either. We were even a trendy upset pick from commentators for the Miami of Ohio game.
The hunter does not announce himself. He just shows up. Tennessee fans have seen Amari Evans best game, Jalen Carey’s, Estrella’s, Bishop Boswell doing it on offense and defense, Okpara blocking and dunking with joy, and we have seen in a few glimpses like the Oklahoma game and the Rutgers game what it looks like when our two stars are both feeling it.
This is a weighty moment. Michigan has incredible history, they have a national championship, lots of Final Fours. Tennessee has never had one. This would be the greatest basketball win in program history on Sunday and all the players, players who love their coach, know that.
The experts will not pick us. They had reasons not to this year. Yet we are peaking at just the right time. They will keep having to explain why they were wrong.
Sunday is a great day to be a Vol. GBO.
Clayton Wood is a Knoxville pastor and lawyer and contributing editor for TriStar Daily.
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