HOW FAST WILL THE REVOLVING DOOR SPIN? Candidates for everything from Governor to Senate to Congress and legislative seats (half the State Senate and all House seats), in addition to some local races, were able to pick up their qualifying petitions starting Friday. Those who’ve been talking about running now have to put up or shut up, and as the legislature returns to work in Nashville this week, we are likely to see some announcements from legislators deciding not to seek reelection, thereby opening up some open seat battles. Buckle up, the fun is just beginning.
SENATE SEAT RUMOR MILL.
Speculation continues to build regarding who Marsha Blackburn might appoint to fill her US Senate seat if she is successful in winning the governor’s race this year. The timing is interesting since Marsha, if she wins, might resign her US Senate seat immediately AFTER she takes the oath of office as Governor or she could choose to resign moments before, leaving just a few minutes for outgoing Governor Bill Lee to make that appointment. So the first big question would be: who makes the pick?
The person selected would serve until the next statewide election in 2028, since Marsha was just elected to a six-year term that began last January. An election for the full six-year term would come in 2030.
When Marsha first made her decision to run for Governor, Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs (who had been actively considering a campaign) immediately announced his support for Marsha and opted out of the race. There was a lot of speculation at the time that a “deal“ had been made for her to name Jacobs to fill her Senate seat if she won the Governor’s race. Both have since tamped down that speculation, but it remains viable.
Congressman Tim Burchett has dramatically increased his visibility in the state and outside over the past year and clearly has an interest in the Senate seat should the appointment become available. Other Republican members of the Tennessee delegation have also expressed interest.
President Donald Trump will almost certainly weigh in on the selection, even if not publicly. He has clearly had his fill of RINO Senators who have consistently blocked his agenda with the narrow majority in the Senate, and wants more reliable conservative Senators in place to assist him in his final two years in office. Burchett would fill that bill; the more Libertarian Jacobs would appear much less reliable and would lack a track record to prove otherwise.
Rumors are increasing around Bill Lee’s favorite for the spot: Stuart Mcwhorter.
Trump has made no secret of his distrust of Lee in the past, and a Bill Lee RINO clone in Mcwhorter would likely be the exact opposite of the kind of Senate pick Trump would like to see. Lee is rumored to be dangling an early endorsement of Marsha in exchange for her agreement to either let Bill Lee make the pick or to pick Mcwhorter herself. With her current lead in the polls, this all raises the question of which endorsement matters more to her: Trump or Lee? And does she really need either one to win the primary?
CAMPAIGN FINANCIAL REPORTS COMING SOON.
Money doesn’t just talk in the political arena, it screams! Loudly! For candidates in Tennessee seeking federal office, such as the US Senate and congressional seats, the next important fundraising reporting deadline is at the end of this month. Fundraising for the year ended Dec. 31 must be submitted to the FEC by the end of this month.
For candidates running for Tennessee state offices, such as Governor and legislative seats, Feb. 2 is the reporting deadline for campaign collections and expenditures through January 15. We are approaching “put up or shut up” time for many candidates who have been talking a lot but lack resources. Getting 25 names on a qualifying petition may get you on the ballot, but it doesn’t make you a credible candidate. Legitimate campaigns rely on sufficient funds to operate and communicate, both of which are necessary to actually win.
Some complain that money shouldn’t matter so much in politics. The reality is that it does, just like tasty, delicious chocolate cake shouldn’t contain any calories, but reality and our waistlines tell us the truth, whether we like it or not.
So the old adage “follow the money” will definitely ring true over the next several weeks as financial reports reveal some harsh truths.
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