Republican supermajorities in the Tennessee legislature are almost certain to remain in place in the aftermath of the 2026 election cycle. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of drama during the primary party battles in August. Here are two key contests to keep an eye on.
NASHVILLE DISTRICT 59. Democrat Rep. Caleb Hemmer’s decision to forego a reelection bid in the lean Democrat Nashville district that includes some of Nashville’s more conservative and high-dollar voting neighborhoods like Belle Meade, Forest Hills, Bellevue and Brentioch, makes it one that Republicans might have a shot at flipping, particularly with a likely brutal Democrat primary. Republican Bill Hancock has a straight shot at November with no primary opponent and with nearly $200,000 raised already. Four Democrats want to succeed Hemmer: Angie Lawless, Beth West, Rick Ewing and Mark Proctor.
Lawless appears to be targeting voters with a more bipartisan approach, recognizing that with a 75-24 GOP stranglehold on the House, bomb throwing tactics like those employed by Rep. Justin Jones might garner media attention but they don’t help get legislation passed that could benefit constituents. Will moderation play in a left-wing Democrat primary? Lawless hopes the fact that it will appeal to voters in November gets her past August.
West is armed with the ground forces and brain trust of Rep. Aftyn Behn, a formidable crew and well oiled political machine. West is less strident than Behn and less likely to distribute F-bombs unnecessarily, but certainly firmly entrenched in the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. However, she also has solid connections in the monied class in Nashville and should have the funds to supplement her ground campaign with media air cover.
Ewing is the husband of Metro Council member Sandy Ewing, and will have some ground game at his disposal as well. Coming from one of the city’s more prominent black families, and running as perhaps the most pro-business candidates in the Dem field, he will have fundraising and friend-raising advantages he can wield effectively, particularly in a four candidate field with no runoff.
Proctor was first in the race and with Hemmer’s endorsement. A former Tennessee Highway Patrol officer, which he highlights in his campaign materials, his law-enforcement background may play better in the general election than it does in the primary. Because he got in early, he is the only one in the Democrat field to report fundraising totals. He reportedly has about $100,000 cash on hand at this point, which is a decent start, but a winning primary campaign will likely require at least double that amount. He is supported by former Nashville Mayors Phil Bredesen and Megan Barry, and Reps. Vincent Dixie and Bo Mitchell, among other Nashville elected officials.
With four good and likely well-funded candidate in the primary, 35% of the vote probably gets the nomination. Any of the four could get there, but depending upon how tough the fight is on the airwaves and in mailboxes, Hancock has an opportunity to get Republicans their first real foothold in Nashville in a while.
HOUSE DISTRICT 78 (CHEATHAM, PART OF DICKSON COUNTY)
With Republican Rep. Mary Littleton deciding to retire three Republicans have jumped in to fill her seat: John Greer, former Pleasant View Mayor Perry Keenan and former Pegram Mayor John Louallen Perry Keenan’s campaign kick off had Mary Littleton, Rep. William Lamberth (Majority Leader of the GOP Caucus), and Sen. Kerry Roberts on hand. Rep. Jody Barrett is supporting John Louallen. The seat is almost certain to stay in Republican hands. At this point the edge appears to go to Keenan.
Steve Gill is editor in Publisher of TriStar Daily. His election results predictions are usually even less accurate than his March Madness bracket!
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