One of the biggest questions running through Republican circles across the state is when, and if, Congressman John Rose will loosen the purse strings and begin a significant paid media campaign to raise his name identification among GOP voters and begin to narrow the sizable gap that polls show between him and Senator Marsha Blackburn in the Governor’s race. Rose is actively campaigning throughout the state, listening and talking to voters, which his campaign says is laying the groundwork for his plan to soon increase his numbers dramatically. Yet, even his ardent supporters express concerns that the clock is ticking and that further delays in making big moves may result in a “too little too late” strategic failure.
The Blackburn campaign has circulated a new Cygnal poll that shows her leading Rose by 51 percentage points. The poll of likely voters has Blackburn with 58% support among primary voters, John Rose with 7%, Monty Fritts at 4%, while 30% remain undecided.
Although it is clearly a strong poll for Blackburn, there are some red flags that are apparent as well. With Blackburn having spent millions of dollars over the last few years running for reelection along with a heavy ad campaign from Americans for Prosperity touting her support for their voucher plan, she has very high name identification among Republican voters of about 95%. Nevertheless, her own polling indicates that 30% are undecided and 24% of those polled are only “probably” voting for her. With Rose’s name ID somewhere in the teens he has a lot of room to grow his support and reduce hers among the undecided and “probable” supporters as negative/comparison ads are launched.
Rose should also have concerns that as he remains relatively unknown among GOP voters, targeted negative ads against him from Blackburn’s campaign or supportive PACs could define him badly before he defines himself positively.
The bottom line is that despite Blackburn having a significant lead at this point there is still a likelihood that the gap will close over the next few months if Rose launches a well-funded media blitz. Blackburn’s support is built on a foundation of inevitability that Rose must overcome soon, and he has to narrow the perceived polling gap before President Trump sees the race as essentially over and endorses Blackburn. Trump remains the gold standard for Republican primary voters. which underlines why Rose has to make the race competitive or risk Trump intervening with an endorsement.
LAMAR BACKS BUTCH BAKER IN STATE SENATE PRIMARY
Former Governor Lamar Alexander has not been particularly active in Tennessee Republican primary races in recent years, and it has been a long time since he has been on a ballot in the state. So, his endorsement of Butch Baker, who is challenging incumbent State Senator Mark Pody in the GOP Primary in a Middle Tennessee district that covers Wilson and a portion of Davidson County raised some eyebrows. Lamar explained to a few people that Butch was very close to his son Drew and spoke at his son’s funeral so it was a highly personal reflection of support. Baker was among Republicans recently notified that they were not “bona fide” by GOP chairman Scott Golden. Baker immediately paid the required qualifying fee to the party and was cleared to be listed on the ballot for the GOP primary in August.
BONA FIDE BATTLES CONTINUE
Cade Cothren, the former chief of staff for House Speaker Glen Casada, is continuing his fight to be listed on the ballot against Republican incumbent Kip Capley. However, the vocal support from Democrat Justin Jones, who took to the House floor to express his support for Cothren from whom he received a $100 donation in 2023, it is unlikely to sway the Republican state executive committee.
And lest you think it is only Republicans who are fighting about ballot access two Democrats are suing their party to make it onto the August Democrat ballot! Elizabeth Stephens of Nashville in the 5th Congressional District and Jacob Anders of Tullahoma in the 4th Congressional District — are suing the Tennessee Democratic Party after being disqualified from their primaries. The two candidates argue that TNDP’s appeal hearing procedures were unfair and failed to provide due process.
Steve Gill is editor and Publisher of TriStar Daily. His March Madness bracket has been even more chaotic than party disputes over bona fides!
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