Early voting turnout on both the Democratic and Republican sides of the aisles in the special election primaries for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District remains well below expectations. The fact that Democrats have nearly matched Republican votes at the end of early voting in a district that was drawn with a 10+ or better republican composition is raising alarm bells for the GOP.
According to the official early voting report, 18,203 votes were cast during early voting in the Republican primary, which has 11 candidates competing for the nomination. The four Democratic candidates garnered a total of 17,825 votes. Particularly troublesome for Republicans is the fact that Davidson County resulted in a 7,866 to 1,140 Democratic advantage. Even in heavily Republican Williamson County. Republicans only generated a 3,702 to 2,392 margin. Granted, the seventh district does not encompass all of Williamson, and excludes much of the more heavily populated and more Republican-leaning areas. However, the numbers still raise concerns among GOP leaders.
With nine of the 14 counties in the district observing fall break next week, as the election falls on Tuesday, Election Day turnout is not expected to be at a significantly higher pace than has been seen during early voting. Several Republican observers expect a total turnout of approximately 32,000 votes, meaning the magic number for the GOP nomination could be as few as 8,000 votes, with 11 candidates dividing the support.
Voter engagement may not be much greater for the general election on December 2. Early voting will end during Thanksgiving week, and the Tuesday election will follow, with most schools in the district being out for Thanksgiving. Both the timing and the turmoil on the Republican side appear to give Democrats a prime opportunity to pull an upset in the district. Some of that will depend on who prevails in the Democratic Party primary. Liberal Aftyn Behn has been described as the “AOC of Tennessee,” a label she has not resisted. Republicans are more likely to unite around their nominee if she is the Democrats’ choice. A more moderate Democrat nominee, particularly if well funded by the DNC, could pose problems for the Republicans in December, depending on whether the wounds from the bitter primary heal quickly or not.
Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.
