TRUMP ENDORSEMENT WAS “HUGE”
Matt Van Epps outpaced Jody Barrett on Election Day by a gap of about 12,000 to 4,000. Surging from about a 2500 margin when early voting ended and expanding to a 10,000 vote final margin. Some thought the Trump endorsement came too late to have much impact, but the power of Trump in a district he won by 20 points should not have been underestimated. 

Barrett’s percentage in early voting and Election Day voting was about the same. Van Epps’ vote dramatically increased, while other candidates down the slate collapsed.

Here is how the #TN07 results broke out by vote during early voting versus election day (and after Trump endorsement) in the GOP primary:

Absentee/Early Vote
Van Epps 42%
Barrett 27%
Bulso 15%
Reeves 9%

Election Day
Van Epps 61%
Barrett 24%
Bulso 7%
Reeves 2%

BAD WEATHER AND FALL BREAK DIDN’T REALLY NEGATIVELY IMPACT TURNOUT:
Early vote totals in the Republican primary in the 14 counties making up the seventh district was anemic, with only 18,203 cast. And Democrats in the district nearly matched that total.

But Election Day GOP turnout more than doubled the early vote total, with most of those Election Day votes benefiting Matt Van Epps.

Democrats saw their early vote total increase from 17,825 to a final tally of 31,002, an Election Day increase of only 13,177.

Interestingly, with a highly contested Democrat Primary Election, their voters were compelled to “Stay home” rather than crossover and vote in the Republican primary, as so often happens. Tennessee law allows voters to vote in whichever primary they wish on Election Day, as the state does not have voter registration by party. Although voting in a party primary without actually intending to be a part of that party is technically illegal, it is seldom, if ever, enforced.

WINNERS AND LOSERS:

WINNERS: Matt Van Epps was clearly the biggest winner. Even critics of Tennessee’s failure to require a runoff in races where a candidate gets less than 50% plus one of the vote have to acknowledge that Van Epps received nearly 52% of the vote in an 11-candidate race is impressive.

Trump, of course, is the other big winner, strengthening his hold on the Republican Party. There was a reason why every candidate devoted a significant portion of their campaign material to AI-generated pictures of themselves with Trump. They all picked Trump. Ultimately, Trump selected only one.

Out-of-state PACs funded by anti-Trump billionaires, and the Club for Growth, fueled by animosity over Barrett’s opposition to their school voucher plan, dumped millions of dollars into the race. They won and proved again that in politics money doesn’t just talk it screams. Loudly. But was electing, almost certainly, a Republican member of Congress who will rank 435th in seniority when sworn in in December really worth what they spent?

Media buyers who placed the TV and radio spots that burned up the airwaves the last several months, and thereby garnered their 15% commissions from the millions spent were obviously big winners as well.

LOSERS: In an 11 candidate GOP primary race there is clearly only one winner. While the ten who came up short lost, they don’t necessarily rank as losers. Several of the lesser known and underfunded candidates acquitted themselves very well and like have possible campaigns ahead. Barrett generated strong numbers in his house district and is at no risk of losing his legislative seat next year. Likewise, Gino Bulso ran a clean and professional campaign that fell short, but will have no long-term negative impact on him or his future, other than needing to get back into the courtroom and earn the half million dollars he spent on the race to refill his bank account.

Lee Reeves, however, spent a fortune and was in a distant fourth place, even before early voting ended and the Trump endorsement landed. He will have to face voters in his State House district that he only narrowly won less than a year ago in August, 2026. His weak campaign definitely puts a big target on his back.

The idea that grassroots efforts without money can win a campaign also has to fall into the classification of “loser” once again. Politics requires money and media to reach, engage, and influence voters. “We the people,” without the money to back it up, seldom, if ever, wins.

Those who hate negative campaign attack ads lost, again. Nobody likes them. They create division and bad feelings, and Matt Van Epps will have to find a way to cure them very quickly before early voting starts in a few weeks. They are only used for one reason: they work. So expect to see many more of them in the campaigns ahead.

On the Democrats’ side, Bo Mitchell finishing third in a four-person race gives him nothing to cheer about today. He had the funding, he had the name recognition, and his house district covered much of the areas that produced Democratic votes. He just didn’t get them. Like Reeves, he may expect a tough primary battle next August.

The final “losers” are democrats who hope to swing their party away from the extremist liberals who are dominating their national party and have relegated themselves to super minority status in Tennessee, and find moderate options to establish a beachhead to regain some power and influence. Sorry. With Aftyn Behn as your nominee in this high-profile special election, the self-described “AOC of Tennessee” will be the face of your party for the next few months. Darden Copeland might have expanded your base. She will not.

Steve Gill is editor and publisher of TriStar Daily.